Recent Changes in Storm Track over the Southeast Europe: A Mechanism for Changes in Extreme Cyclone Variability

Abstract

Recent changes in cyclone tracks crossing Southeast Europe are investigated for the last few decades (1980–1999 compared with 2000–2019) using a developed objective method. The response in number, severity, and persistence of the tracks are analyzed based on the source of origin (the Mediterranean Sea sub-domains) and the target area (Romania-centered domain). In winter, extreme cyclones became more frequent in the south and were also more persistent in the northeast of Romania. In summer, these became more intense and frequent, mainly over the south and southeast of Romania, where they also showed a significant increase in persistence. The regional extreme changes are related to polar jet displacements and further enhanced by the coupling of the sub-tropical jet in the Euro-Atlantic area, such as southwestwards shift in winter jets and a split-type configuration that shifts northeastwards and southeastwards in the summer. These provide a mechanism for regional variability of extreme cyclones through two paths, respectively, by shifting the origins of the tracks and by shifting the interaction between the anomaly jet streaks and the climatological storm tracks. Large-scale drivers of these changes are analyzed in relation to the main modes of atmospheric variability. The tracks number over the target domain is mainly driven during the cold season through a combined action of AO and Polar–European modes, and in summer by the AMO and East-Asian modes. These links and the circulation mode’s recent variability are consistent with changes found in the jet and storm tracks.

Predictive Analysis and Wine-Grapes Disease Risk Assessment Based on Atmospheric Parameters and Precision Agriculture Platform

“…Correlated with data in Figures 4, 6 and 7, ET parameters in Figures 8 and 9 have significant values from April to September (time period in which the temperatures are increased). Since global warming, including extremely high temperatures and drought, is mainly responsible for precipitation quantity reduction [60,61], the same tendency can be noticed in Figures 8 and 9.…”

Long‐term variability of the coastal ocean stratification in the Gulf of Naples: Two decades of monitoring the marine ecosystem at the LTER–MC site, between land and open Mediterranean Sea

“…We show that, even while being in a shallow coastal area, the site is not only influenced by local land inputs (fresh runoffs), but also by basin‐scale drivers whose differentiation is rendered complex to establish by the combination of their multi‐decadal and decadal variabilities, as shown and discussed by Parker et al (2007), or more recently, in the works of Börgel et al (2020), Zhang, Chen, Chen, Ma, & Teshome (2020); Zhang, Villarini, Scoccimarro, & Napolitano (2020) on the North Atlantic multidecadal variability in the mid‐high latitude. In our study, we pave the way towards a better understanding of such interactions in the Tyrrhenian and Mediterranean Sea (Caian et al, 2021; Lopez‐Bustins & Lemus‐Canovas, 2019; Tsanis & Tapoglou, 2019), which could impact the coastal marine ecosystems services of the GoN.…”

“…At this point in our study, we do not aim to disentangle between the influence of NAO and WEMO in the Tyrrhenian coastal area, and we will consider both indexes, as the authors pointed their importance in the Mediterranean area, not only in terms of precipitation (Lopez‐Bustins & Lemus‐Canovas, 2019; Tsanis & Tapoglou, 2019), but also with changes of storm tracks, from the Euro‐Atlantic area over the Southeast Europe (Caian et al, 2021). NAO could be used to explore the potential penetration of the North Atlantic depressions into the Mediterranean, although the effect over the Italian Peninsula is not well understood Sánchez and Aragão (2021) (conference paper).…”

“…as shown and discussed byParker et al (2007), or more recently, in the works ofBörgel et al (2020), Zhang, Chen, Chen, Ma, & Teshome (2020);Zhang, Villarini, Scoccimarro, & Napolitano (2020) on the North Atlantic multidecadal variability in the mid-high latitude. In our study, we pave the way towards a better understanding of such interactions in the Tyrrhenian and Mediterranean Sea(Caian et al, 2021;Lopez- Bustins & Lemus-Canovas, 2019;Tsanis & Tapoglou, 2019), which could impact the coastal marine ecosystems services of the GoN.…”