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IntroductionOver a third of the communities (39%) in the Central Valley of California, a richly diverse and important agricultural region, are classified as disadvantaged—with inadequate access to healthcare, lower socio-economic status, and higher exposure to air and water pollution. The majority of racial and ethnic minorities are also at higher risk of COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and death according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Healthy Central Valley Together established a wastewater-based disease surveillance (WDS) program that aims to achieve greater health equity in the region through partnership with Central Valley communities and the Sewer Coronavirus Alert Network. WDS offers a cost-effective strategy to monitor trends in SARS-CoV-2 community infection rates.MethodsIn this study, we evaluated correlations between public health and wastewater data (represented as SARS-CoV-2 target gene copies normalized by pepper mild mottle virus target gene copies) collected for three Central Valley communities over two periods of COVID-19 infection waves between October 2021 and September 2022. Public health data included clinical case counts at county and sewershed scales as well as COVID-19 hospitalization and intensive care unit admissions. Lag-adjusted hospitalization:wastewater ratios were also evaluated as a retrospective metric of disease severity and corollary to hospitalization:case ratios.ResultsConsistent with other studies, strong correlations were found between wastewater and public health data. However, a significant reduction in case:wastewater ratios was observed for all three communities from the first to the second wave of infections, decreasing from an average of 4.7 ± 1.4 over the first infection wave to 0.8 ± 0.4 over the second.DiscussionThe decline in case:wastewater ratios was likely due to reduced clinical testing availability and test seeking behavior, highlighting how WDS can fill data gaps associated with under-reporting of cases. Overall, the hospitalization:wastewater ratios remained more stable through the two waves of infections, averaging 0.5 ± 0.3 and 0.3 ± 0.4 over the first and second waves, respectively.

Background: Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been deployed broadly as an early warning tool for emerging COVID-19 outbreaks. WBE can inform targeted interventions and identify communities with high transmission, enabling quick and effective response. As wastewater becomes an increasingly important indicator for COVID-19 transmission, more robust methods and metrics are needed to guide public health decision making. Objectives: The aim of this research was to develop and implement a mathematical framework to infer incident cases of COVID-19 from SARS-CoV-2 levels measured in wastewater. We propose a classification scheme to assess the adequacy of model training periods based on clinical testing and assess the sensitivity of model predictions to training periods. Methods: We present a Bayesian deconvolution method and linear regression to estimate COVID-19 cases from wastewater data. We described an approach to characterize adequacy in testing during specific time periods and provided evidence to highlight the importance of model training periods on the projection of cases. We estimated the effective reproductive number (Re) directly from observed cases and from the reconstructed incidence of cases from wastewater. The proposed modeling framework was applied to three Northern California communities served by distinct wastewater treatment plants. Results: Both deconvolution and linear regression models consistently projected robust estimates of prevalent cases and Re from wastewater influent samples when assuming training periods with adequate testing. Case estimates from models that used poorer-quality training periods consistently underestimated observed cases. Discussion: Wastewater surveillance data requires robust statistical modeling methods to provide actionable insight for public health decision-making. We propose and validate a modeling framework that can provide estimates of prevalent COVID-19 cases and Re from wastewater data that can be used as tool for disease surveillance including quality assessment for potential training data.