In this paper, I investigate the effects of changes in demand structure caused by population aging on the Japanese economy using a multi-sector new Keynesian model with job creation/destruction analysis. I consider upward revisions in forecast for the speed of Japanese population aging as unexpected shocks to its demand structure. I find that the shocks caused around 0.3% point deflationary pressure on year-to-year inflation, 0.3% to 0.4% point increase in unemployment rates, and 1.8% point decrease in real GDP from the early 1990s to the 2000s in Japan. I also find that the repetition of such upward revisions made those effects look more persistent.

In this paper, I investigate the cross-sectional determinants of corporate capital structure using a general equilibrium model with endogenous firm dynamics, a realistic tax environment, and financial frictions. I find that the equilibrium firm distribution in the model replicates fairly well the distribution of corporate capital structure as well as the relationship between capital structure, profitability, and firm size in the data. The key mechanisms here are economies of scale and two types of productivity shocks: persistent and transitory. The counterfactual experiment using the model implies, among other things, that tax benefits have relatively small effects on corporate capital structure choice compared with default costs and the costs of outside equity, including the dividend tax. It also reveals that the effects of those frictions on corporate capital structure choice are highly interrelated with each other.

This paper investigates the developments in house price synchronization across countries by a dynamic factor model using a country-and city-level dataset, and examines what drives the synchronization. The empirical results indicate that: (i) the degree of synchronization has been rising since the 1970s, and (ii) a large heterogeneity in the degree of synchronization exists across countries and cities. A panel and cross-sectional regression analysis show that the heterogeneity of synchronization is partly accounted for by the progress in financial and trade openness. Also, the city-level analysis implies that the international synchronization is mainly driven by the city-level connectivity between large and international cities.

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This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three years ahead. House-prices-at-risk help predict future growth at-risk and financial crises. We also investigate and propose policy solutions for preventing the identified risks. We find that overall, a tightening of macroprudential policy is the most effective at curbing downside risks to house prices, whereas a loosening of conventional monetary policy reduces downside risks only in advanced economies and only in the short-term.