To predict the clinical outcome of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), we examined relationships among epidemiological data, viral load, and disease severity. We examined viral loads of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in fatal (15 cases), symptomatic/survived (133 cases), and asymptomatic cases (138 cases) using reverse transcription quantitative real-time PCR (RT-qPCR). We examined 5,768 nasopharyngeal swabs (NPS) and attempted to detect the SARS-CoV-2 genome using RT-qPCR. Among them, the viral genome was detected using the method for the 370 NPS samples with a positive rate of 6.4%. A comparison of each age showed that the fatal case was higher than the survived case and asymptomatic patients. Survived cases were older than asymptomatic patients. Notably, the viral load in the fatal cases was significantly higher than in symptomatic or asymptomatic cases (p < 0.05). These results suggested that a high viral load of the SARS-CoV-2 in elderly patients at an early stage of the disease results in a poor outcome. We should, therefore, intervene early to prevent a severe stage of the disease in such cases.

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BackgroundNeutrophilic inflammation is associated with poorly controlled asthma. Serum levels of sST2, a soluble IL-33 receptor, increase in neutrophilic lung diseases. We hypothesized that high serum sST2 levels in stable asthmatics are a predictor for exacerbation within a short duration.MethodsThis prospective observational study evaluated the serum sST2 levels of 104 asthmatic patients who were treated by a lung disease specialist with follow-ups for 3 months.ResultsHigh serum sST2 levels (> 18 ng/ml) predicted severe asthma exacerbation within 3 months. Serum sST2 levels correlated positively with asthma severity (treatment step), airway H2O2 levels, and serum IL-8 levels. High serum sST2 levels and blood neutrophilia (> 6000 /μl) were independent predictors of exacerbation. We defined a post-hoc exacerbation-risk score combining high serum sST2 level and blood neutrophilia, which stratified patients into four groups. The score predicted exacerbation-risk with an area under curve of 0.91 in the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Patients with the highest scores had the most severe phenotype, with 85.7% showing exacerbation, airflow limitation, and corticosteroid-insensitivity.ConclusionsHigh serum sST2 levels predicted exacerbation within the general asthmatic population and, when combined with blood neutrophil levels, provided an exacerbation-risk score that was an accurate predictor of exacerbation occurring within 3 months.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12931-018-0872-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.