A weeklong workshop in Brazil in August 2004 provided the opportunity for 28 scientists from southern South America to examine daily rainfall observations to determine changes in both total and extreme rainfall. Twelve annual indices of daily rainfall were calculated over the period 1960 to 2000, examining changes to both the entire distribution as well as the extremes. Maps of trends in the 12 rainfall indices showed large regions of coherent change, with many stations showing statistically significant changes in some of the indices. The pattern of trends for the extremes was generally the same as that for total annual rainfall, with a change to wetter conditions in Ecuador and northern Peru and the region of southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and northern and central Argentina. A decrease was observed in southern Peru and southern Chile, with the latter showing significant decreases in many indices. A canonical correlation analysis between each of the indices and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) revealed two large-scale patterns that have contributed to the observed trends in the rainfall indices. A coupled pattern with ENSO-like SST loadings and rainfall loadings showing similarities with the pattern of the observed trend reveals that the change to a generally more negative Southern Oscillation index (SOI) has had an important effect on regional rainfall trends. A significant decrease in many of the rainfall indices at several stations in southern Chile and Argentina can be explained by a canonical pattern reflecting a weakening of the continental trough leading to a southward shift in storm tracks. This latter signal is a change that has been seen at similar latitudes in other parts of the Southern Hemisphere. A similar analysis was carried out for eastern Brazil using gridded indices calculated from 354 stations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) database. The observed trend toward wetter conditions in the southwest and drier conditions in the northeast could again be explained by changes in ENSO.

Para citar este documentoRabelo da Rocha Repinaldo, C.., Müller, G. V., Martins Andrade, K.. (2017). Patrones atmosfericos simulados en el clima presente y futuro asociados al descenso de temperatura en el sudeste de Sudamerica. Boletín geográfico, 39, 13-34. ResumenLas características atmosféricas asociadas a eventos extremos fríos, identificados a partir del descenso de la temperatura en el invierno en tres regiones en el sudeste de Sudamérica, son analizadas con datos de reanálisis NCEP/NCAR y simulaciones de los modelos HadCM3 y GFDL-CM2.0 en la versión acoplada océano-atmósfera, para el clima presente y el escenario futuro más crítico A2 del CMIP3. Para las simulaciones del clima presente, el modelo que mejor representó las características observadas en el conjunto del reanálisis fue el GFDL-CM2.0, presentándose más coherente con relación a las posiciones de las altas pos frontales y de las isotermas de 0°C y 10°C. Para el futuro, el modelo GFDL-CM2.0 proyecta un debilitamiento de las anomalías negativas de temperatura y los eventos extremos de caída de temperatura con menos avance en dirección al Ecuador, mientras que, según el modelo HadCM3, la simulación para el futuro

Resumo -A alta variabilidade interanual da produtividade de milho, no Rio Grande do Sul, é determinada, principalmente, pela variabilidade da precipitação pluvial, e esta, em grande parte está associada ao fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS). A disponibilidade, hoje, de previsões sazonais do ENOS faz vislumbrar a possibilidade de uso dessas informações para minimizar prejuízos e maximizar a produtividade. Há necessidade, porém, de se avaliar a vulnerabilidade da produtividade do milho a esse fenômeno. O objetivo deste trabalho foi quantificar a associação entre a produtividade de milho e a variabilidade da precipitação pluvial, causada pelo ENOS. Para a análise, foram tomadas séries históricas de produtividade, de precipitação pluvial mensal, de ocorrência das fases do ENOS (El Niño e La Niña), de Temperatura da Superfície do Mar (TSM) no Pacífico equatorial, e do Índice de Oscilação Sul (IOS). Há forte tendência do El Niño em favorecer a cultura do milho, o que dá oportunidade à alta produtividade, ao passo que em anos de ocorrência de La Niña há alta freqüência de baixa produtividade. A precipitação pluvial mais associada à produtividade do milho é a integrada de outubro a março. Essas informações são úteis para decisões quanto a alternativas de manejo da cultura, frente a uma previsão de El Niño ou La Niña.Termos para indexação: Zea mays, La Niña, precipitação pluvial. Association between El Niño Southern Oscillation and corn yield in Rio Grande do Sul StateAbstract -The high interannual variability of corn yield in Rio Grande do Sul State is determined mostly by the variability of rainfall, which is mainly associated to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Current availability of seasonal ENSO forecasts shows the possibility of using this information to minimize losses and maximize yield. However, it is necessary to assess the vulnerability of corn yield to this phenomenon. The objective of this work was to quantify the association between corn yield and rainfall variability due to ENSO. In order to perform the analysis, historical series of yields, monthly rainfalls, ENSO (El Niño and La Niña) phases, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in equatorial Pacific, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were used. Results show that there is a strong trend for El Niño to favor corn crops, providing opportunities for high yields, while in years when La Niña occurs there is a high frequency of low yields. The rainfall most associated with corn yields is the integrated one from October to March. This information is useful for decision making as to crop management alternatives when there is a forecast of El Niño or La Niña.

Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, localizada no município de Eldorado do Sul, nos anos agrícolas de 1993/94 e 1994/95. O objetivo foi avaliar o potencial da água na folha como indicador do déficit hídrico, em milho (Zea mays L.), relacionando-o ao potencial da água no solo. O experimento constou de três níveis de irrigação, desde a capacidade de campo até a ausência de irrigação. Os valores do potencial mínimo da água na folha foram desde -1,2 a -1,5 MPa em plantas irrigadas (na capacidade de campo) e de -1,6 a -2,0 MPa em plantas não irrigadas. O potencial mínimo da água na folha correlacionou-se com o potencial matricial da água no solo a 45 cm de profundidade (r 2 = 0,73), e mostrou ser um indicador adequado de déficit hídrico. O potencial da água na folha ao entardecer mostrou relação com o potencial mínimo da água na folha, indicando, assim, que pode ser utilizado como indicador de déficit hídrico. O potencial foliar de base apresentou diferenças evidentes entre os tratamentos extremos, mas não teve relação consistente com o potencial mínimo da água na folha.Termos para indexação: Zea mays, relação planta-água, potencial hídrico do solo, índices de irrigação. LEAF WATER POTENTIAL AS AN INDICATOR OF WATER DEFICIT IN MAIZEABSTRACT -This study was carried out at the Agronomic Experimental Station of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, in Eldorado do Sul, RS, Brazil, during the agricultural seasons of 1993/94 and 1994/95. The objective was to evaluate the leaf water potential as an indicator of the water deficit in maize (Zea mays L.), and its relation with the soil water potential. The experiment comprised three levels of irrigation, from field capacity to absence of irrigation. The values of the minimum leaf water potential ranged from -1.2 to -1.5 MPa in irrigated plants (field capacity) and from -1.6 to -2.0 MPa in nonirrigated plants. The minimum leaf water potential was well correlated to the matric water potential measured at 45 cm deep (r 2 = 0.73). The sunset leaf water potential showed relationship with the minimum leaf water potential indicating it to be an indicator of water deficit. The predawn leaf water potential showed clear differences between the utmost treatments, but did not show any consistent relationship with the minimum leaf water potential.

Soybean yield is modelled from data gathered from crops in Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. The model comprises an agrometeorological term, obtained by adjusting the multiplicative model of Jensen, modified by Berlato, and a spectral term, obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite images of the maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The weather data used to calculate the relative evapotranspiration (ET r /ET 0 ) cover the period from 1975 to 2000, and the NDVI/NOAA images were obtained from 1982 to 2000. Application of the agrometeorological-spectral model produced better yield estimates (of about 5%) than Jensen's model, allowing the further generation of yield maps for the most significant soybean production regions within the Rio Grande do Sul State.