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Background Post-term pregnancy is a health problem of clinical importance and; tends to recur in subsequent pregnancies. Maternal age, height, and male fetal sex are risk factors associated with Post-term pregnancy. The study aimed to determine the recurrence risk of post-term pregnancy and associated factors among women delivered at KCMC referral hospital. Methodology This retrospective cohort study used KCMC zonal referral hospital medical birth registry cohort data for 43472 women delivered between 2000 and 2018. Data were analyzed using STATA version 15 software. Log-binomial regression with robust variance estimator determined the factors associated recurrence of post-term pregnancy adjusted for other factors. Results A total of 43472 women were analyzed. The proportion of post-term pregnancy was 11.4%, and the recurrence was 14.8%. The recurrence risk of post-term pregnancy was increased when a woman had a history of previous post-term pregnancy (aRR: 1.75; 95%CI: 1.44, 2.11). Advanced maternal age, i.e., ≥35years (aRR: 0.80; 95%CI: 0.65, 0.99), having secondary and higher education (aRR: 0.8; 95%CI: 0.66, 0.97), and being employed (aRR: 0.68; 95%CI: 0.55, 0.84) decreased the recurrence risk of post-term pregnancy. Women with recurrence of post-term pregnancy had a higher risk of delivering newborns weighed ≥4000gm (aRR: 5.05; 95% CI: 2.80, 9.09). Conclusion Post-term pregnancy is associated with recurrence risk in subsequent pregnancies. A history of previous post-term pregnancy is associated risk factor and these women are at increased risk of delivering newborns weighed ≥4000gm. Clinical counselling of women at risk of post-term pregnancy and timely management is recommended to prevent adverse neonatal and maternal outcomes.

IntroductionSub-Saharan Africa has the highest rate of unintentional paediatric injury deaths. The Pediatric Resuscitation and Trauma Outcome (PRESTO) model predicts mortality using patient variables available in low-resource settings: age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), heart rate (HR), oxygen saturation, need for supplemental oxygen (SO) and neurologic status (Alert Verbal Painful Unresponsive (AVPU)). We sought to validate and assess the prognostic performance of PRESTO for paediatric injury patients at a tertiary referral hospital in Northern Tanzania.MethodsThis is a cross-sectional study from a prospective trauma registry from November 2020 to April 2022. We performed exploratory analysis of sociodemographic variables and developed a logistic regression model to predict mortality using R (V.4.1). The logistic regression model was evaluated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC).Results499 patients were enrolled with a median age of 7 years (IQR 3.41–11.18). 65% were boys, and in-hospital mortality was 7.1%. Most were classified as alert on AVPU Scale (n=326, 86%) and had normal SBP (n=351, 98%). Median HR was 107 (IQR 88.5–124). The logistic regression model based on the original PRESTO model revealed that AVPU, HR and SO were statistically significant to predict in-hospital mortality. The model fit to our population revealed AUC=0.81, sensitivity=0.71 and specificity=0.79.ConclusionThis is the first validation of a model to predict mortality for paediatric injury patients in Tanzania. Despite the low number of participants, our results show good predictive potential. Further research with a larger injury population should be done to improve the model for our population, such as through calibration.

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