The Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment (ROPME) Sea Area (RSA) in the northern Indian Ocean, which comprises the Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the northern Arabian Sea, already experiences naturally extreme environmental conditions and incorporates one of the world’s warmest seas. There is growing evidence that climate change is already affecting the environmental conditions of the RSA, in areas including sea temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, pH, and sea level, which are set to continue changing over time. The cumulative impacts of these changes on coastal and marine ecosystems and dependent societies are less well documented, but are likely to be significant, especially in the context of other human stressors. This review represents the first regional synthesis of observed and predicted climate change impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems across the ROPME Sea Area and their implications for dependent societies. Climate-driven ecological changes include loss of coral reefs due to bleaching and the decline of fish populations, while socio-economic impacts include physical impacts from sea-level rise and cyclones, risk to commercial wild capture fisheries, disruption to desalination systems and loss of tourism. The compilation of this review is aimed to support the development of targeted adaptation actions and to direct future research within the RSA.

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Coral communities of the Persian Gulf (PG) withstand maximum and annual ranges of water temperatures that surpass those found on the majority of reefs elsewhere. As such, these communities may inform on how coral reefs might adapt to the warmer waters of the future. Depending on the algal symbiont (genus Symbiodinium) harboured, advantages in stress tolerance may be conferred to the coral holobiont. Characterizing the algal component is therefore critical in determining the coral holobiont's tolerance phenotype. Coral associations off the Arabian coastline of the PG have been characterized as biogeographically unique, containing a rare group of taxonomically ancestral and thermotolerant algal symbionts, the Symbiodinium thermophilum group. In contrast, waters off the Iranian coast remain poorly characterized with a notable lack of S. thermophilum group symbionts identified in coral associations to date. Here, we characterize the algal component of two reef building corals (Porites harrisoni and Cyphastrea microphthalma) predominant at three sites spanning almost the entire length of the PG's Iranian coast. Genotyping using the chloroplastic 23S and nuclear ITS2 genes, we demonstrate the presence of S. thermophilum group symbionts. We discuss the probable physical drivers of these associations and highlight the need for further research in these relatively understudied waters.

Ocean warming is increasing the incidence, scale, and severity of global-scale coral bleaching and mortality, culminating in the third global coral bleaching event that occurred during record marine heatwaves of 2014-2017. While local effects of these events have been widely reported, the global implications remain unknown. Analysis of 15,066 reef surveys during 2014-2017 revealed that 80% of surveyed reefs experienced significant coral bleaching and 35% experienced significant coral mortality. The global extent of significant coral bleaching and mortality was assessed by extrapolating results from reef surveys using comprehensive remote-sensing data of regional heat stress. This model predicted that 51% of the world’s coral reefs suffered significant bleaching and 15% significant mortality, surpassing damage from any prior global bleaching event. These observations demonstrate that global warming’s widespread damage to coral reefs is accelerating and underscores the threat anthropogenic climate change poses for the irreversible transformation of these essential ecosystems.