Strong historical, cultural, linguistic, and religious affinities have bound Iran and Afghanistan within the greater Middle East region. With the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover in August 2021, Iran is likely to face the exacerbation of existing nontraditional security challenges and the emergence of new threats. Iran continues to deal with drug trafficking, an influx of refugees and economic migrants, and terrorism caused partly by more than four decades of war in Afghanistan. Although Iranian authorities have cheered the United States (US) pullout and expressed cautious optimism about the Taliban, Tehran's choice of policy toward Afghanistan and its new rulers remains to be decided. Iran is likely to continue a policy of engagement with the Taliban unless the government in Kabul realigns with Tehran's adversaries and poses security threats to Iran. In the latter situation, Iran, resorting to proxy sponsorship, is likely to model its Afghanistan policy on its Iraq policy.
The Taliban 2.0 have made overtures to states across different regions to seek international recognition. In a departure from their past isolationist foreign policy practices, I argue the Taliban have expediently, yet uncharacteristically, pursued these initiatives in a spirit of “ pragmatism.” The modus vivendi they have reached with Iran demonstrates the Taliban’s unprecedented prioritization of pragmatism over ideology. I draw upon Machiavellian pragmatism in International Relations theory to examine the shift in the Taliban’s political posture through the lens of Iran–Afghanistan relations in three crucial episodes: the Taliban’s rule over Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, the post-9/11 Afghanistan, and the resurgence of the Taliban since August 2021.
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