This paper takes a global perspective in examining relationships among oil, gold, US dollar and stock prices, using simultaneous equations system to identify direct and indirect linkages for the period spanning from January 1995 to October 2015. Results show significant interactions between the all parties. Indeed, we found negative relation between oil and stock prices but oil price is significantly and positively affected by stock markets, gold and USD. Oil price is also affected by oil future prices and by Chinese oil gross imports. Gold price is concerned by changes in oil, USD and stock market prices but slightly depend on US oil imports and corporate default premium. The US dollar is negatively affected by stock market and significantly by oil and gold prices and also by US consumer price index. Indirect effects always exist which confirm the presence of global interdependencies and involve the financialization process of commodity markets.
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether Islamic stock indexes outperform conventional stock indexes, in terms of informational efficiency and risk, during the recent financial instability period. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a state space model combined with a standard GARCH(1,1) specification while taking into account structural breakpoints. The authors allow for efficiency and volatility spillovers to be time-varying and consider break dates to locate periods of financial instability. Findings Empirical results show that Islamic stock indexes are more volatile than their conventional counterparts and are not totally immune to the global financial crisis. As regards of the informational efficiency, the results show that the Islamic stock indexes are more efficient than the conventional stock indexes. Practical implications Resulting evidence of this paper has several implications for international investors who wish to invest in Islamic and/or conventional stock markets. Policy makers and even academics and Sharias researchers should as well take preventive measures in order to ensure the stability of Islamic stock markets during turmoil periods. Overall, prudent risk management and precocious financial practices are relevant and crucial for both Islamic and conventional financial markets. Originality/value The originality of this study is performed by the use of time-varying models for volatility spillovers and informational efficiency. It considers structural break dates that think about the dynamic effect of informational flows on stock markets. The study was developed in a global framework using international data. The global analysis allows avoiding country specific effects.
This paper investigates the degree and structure of interdependence between emerging (Asian and Latin American) and developed (USA and Japan) stock markets through the study of volatility spillovers for the period spanning from January 1, 1993 to October 13, 2010. Using both standard GARCH model and quantile regression approach, we find the evidence of significant interdependence between financial markets which may give evidence of volatility transmission existence. The volatility transmission is closely associated with geographical proximity as well as with crisis periods which confirm the presence of contagion. The analysis of upper and lower quantiles allows observing that the interdependence increases during bullish markets while decreases during bearish markets. Accordingly, the structure of interdependence is asymmetric for both Asian and Latin American emerging markets. These findings open up new insights for government policy makers and for managerial purposes.
This paper applies the DCC-FIGARCH model to investigate the role of Bitcoin as a hedge and safe haven for Islamic stock markets in comparison with gold. We use daily data for the period January 2010–May 2020, which covers the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Empirical results show that the dynamic correlation between Bitcoin and Islamic stock markets is low and usually negative during major economic and political events suggesting that Bitcoin qualifies as a safe haven against Islamic stock markets downturns. Extending our analysis to portfolio management, findings reveal that the diversification benefits of Bitcoin are most times stable and increase significantly during turbulent periods. Thereby, adding Bitcoin in a portfolio of Islamic stocks reduce the risk of portfolio. Finally, as regards the COVID-19 outbreak period, we find that the hedging strategy involving Bitcoin leads to a higher cost during the crisis. These results provide substantial recommendations for Islamic investors and portfolio managers.
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