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Este artículo analiza los principales determinantes de la recaudación predial en México de 1990 a 2010. A través de un estudio estadístico, con base en datos a escala municipal, se examinan las principales hipótesis sugeridas por la literatura para entender los niveles de recaudación; es decir, se evalúa la capacidad explicativa de factores económicos, políticos y administrativos. Por un lado, se analiza qué tanto las variables socioeconómicas del municipio, así como el monto de transferencias que reciben, influyen en la recaudación. Y por otro, se sopesa si la capacidad institucional del municipio y el nivel de competencia política influyen en el monto recaudado de predial. Los hallazgos indican que los municipios que enfrentan mayor competencia electoral tienden a no incrementar la recaudación predial; que la capacidad institucional de tesorerías y catastros también influye; que mientras más rico y urbano sea el municipio, más recauda. Por último, se encuentra que las transferencias fiscales intergubernamentales no han desincentivado la recaudación predial.

The Mexican tax system in the 1800s was almost entirely composed of indirect taxes. However, the Revolution opened a window for change. In the early 1920s, President Alvaro Obregón created two direct taxes by decree: the federal property tax and the income tax. It was a clear disruption of the status quo, naturally raising opposition from those affected by the new taxes. Yet the attempt to establish the federal property tax failed, while the income tax was a relative success. This paper explains the divergent fates of these two tax decrees. In order to explain the divergent outcomes I focus on the political struggles behind both decrees. I argue that the roles played by both the opposition groups and the government in the two struggles differed greatly and help explain the fates of these taxes. The political and ideological background behind both tax struggles also help to explain the failure of the federal property tax and the implementation of the income tax.

This paper analyzes the roles played by the legislative, executive, and business sector in Mexico’s 2013 tax reform, drawing on original field-research findings. I examine each of these actors’ influence over the public period of congressional debate, as well as the typically invisible agenda-setting stage and the adoption of executive decrees following the legislative process. I find that Congress remains subordinated to the executive in budgetary matters and that business is more central in shaping the details of the tax bill. The tax reform achieved little, leaving the overall fiscal capacity of the Mexican State largely unchanged.