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The main indicators affecting short and longterm macroeconomic stability are budget deficits, current account deficit and savings deficits expressed as savings-investment imbalance. In the literature of Economics and Finance, there are many national and international studies on Twin Deficits Hypothesis. The triple deficit is also the balance of imbalance. The Triple Deficit Hypothesis is based on the relationship between the budget balance expressed as internal balance and the balance of savings and the current account balance representing the external balance. The main purpose of this study is to create a Triple Deficit Pressure Index for Turkey in 1998 - 2019 period. In addition, leading indicators that cause financial crises are investigated using the Triple Deficit Pressure Index. The study proves that Triple Deficit Pressure Index is valid in Turkey. In addition, there is one-way Granger causality for the Trıple Defıcıt Pressure Index.

A currency crisis is a condition in which the exchange rate significantly depreciates for a short period of time. Currency crises have significant economic and social consequences. Therefore, many indices are created to determine the degree of pressure in economies and to forecast the financial crises. According to the Signal Approach, it is thought that a variable gives a warning signal that a crisis may occur if a variable goes beyond a certain threshold level. The main purpose of this study to investigate the validity of the Index of Currency Market Turbulence developed by Kaminsky and Reinhart for Turkey in the period January 1999-December 2019. The results show that the Index is working, and the formula is correct. The another aim is to determine the leading indicators with respect to the Index of Currency Market Turbulence in the prediction of crises by Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) Model. The leading indicators causing financial crises, are tried to be determined by using Index of Currency Market Turbulence. Vector Autoregressive analysis results show that Unemployment Ratio, Exports/Import ratio, and the Non-Residents' Equity Portfolio are exogenous, and other variables are not. Granger Causality test results show that the Unemployment Rate, Net International Reserves, US Dollar /TRL Currency Buying Rate and the Non-Residents' Equity Portfolio can be used as leading indicators. VAR analysis, variance decomposition and Granger Causality test results show that Unemployment Rate (UR), Net International Reserves (NIR), US Dollar/ TRL Buying Rate (USD/TRL), the Equity Portfolio of Non-Residents (NREP) can be used as leading indicators.

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Amerika Birleşik Devletleri Merkez Bankası Aralık 2016’da faiz artırım döngüsüne başlamış ve finansal piyasalardaki oynaklık hızlıca artmıştır. Coronavirus (COVID19) salgın ve Türkiye’de 2018 - 2021 döneminde yaşanan kur atakları oynaklık çalışmasının yapılmasına öncülük etmiştir. Çalışmanın amacı Türk Lirası üzerindeki oynaklık ve oynaklık yayılımının EGARCH modeli ile analiz edilmesidir. Asimetrik etki parametresinin (δ), yani kaldıraç etkisinin 15 Aralık 2016 – 28 Şubat 2022 döneminde ABD Doları/Türk Lirası Alış Kurunda geçerli olmadığını göstermektedir. GARCH modeli; ABD Doları/Güney Afrika Rand’ı ve ABD Doları/Çin Yuan’ı dışında ABD Doları/Türk Lirası Alış kurunun oynaklığı ile diğer para birimleri arasında bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. ABD 10 yıllık tahvil faizleri ve Şikago Opsiyon Borsası Oynaklık Endeksi değişkenleri de Amerikan Doları/Türk Lirası alış kuru oynaklığı üzerinde etkilidir.