We implement a meta-regression-analysis for the budgetary impact of numerical fiscal rules based on 30 studies published in the last decade. The existing empirical evidence points to a constraining effect of rules on fiscal aggregates. However, this seemingly optimistic message is strongly weakened as our analysis points to a bias if the potential endogeneity of fiscal rules is not explicitly taken into account. Furthermore, our analysis provides evidence for the presence of a publication bias. Both sources of bias reduce the statistical precision of obtained effects below usual levels of statistical significance. In addition, we offer suggestive evidence for the effect size based on a small coherent sub-sample and provide recommendations for future research on the budgetary impact of fiscal rules.

Die Dis cus si on Pape rs die nen einer mög lichst schnel len Ver brei tung von neue ren For schungs arbei ten des ZEW. Die Bei trä ge lie gen in allei ni ger Ver ant wor tung der Auto ren und stel len nicht not wen di ger wei se die Mei nung des ZEW dar.Dis cus si on Papers are inten ded to make results of ZEW research prompt ly avai la ble to other eco no mists in order to encou ra ge dis cus si on and sug gesti ons for revi si ons. The aut hors are sole ly respon si ble for the con tents which do not neces sa ri ly repre sent the opi ni on of the ZEW. Do Fiscal Rules Constrain Fiscal Policy? A Meta-Regression-Analysis AbstractWe implement a meta-regression-analysis for the budgetary impact of numerical fiscal rules. Based on 30 studies published in the last decade, we offer a consensus estimate with respect to the level of statistical significance, provide suggestive evidence for the effect size, and identify study features of relevance for the measured impact of fiscal rules. Overall, the results document a constraining impact of rules. However, this impact is weakened if refined identification strategies are employed. Moreover, the results provide evidence for a publication bias in which journals are more likely to report constraining and statistically significant effects compared to working papers. We further provide recommendations for future research on the budgetary impact of fiscal rules.

Die Dis cus si on Pape rs die nen einer mög lichst schnel len Ver brei tung von neue ren For schungs arbei ten des ZEW. Die Bei trä ge lie gen in allei ni ger Ver ant wor tung der Auto ren und stel len nicht not wen di ger wei se die Mei nung des ZEW dar.Dis cus si on Papers are inten ded to make results of ZEW research prompt ly avai la ble to other eco no mists in order to encou ra ge dis cus si on and sug gesti ons for revi si ons. The aut hors are sole ly respon si ble for the con tents which do not neces sa ri ly repre sent the opi ni on of the ZEW. Non-technical summaryGermany has a lower fertility rate than many other Western countries. The difference in fertility rates is likely to be driven by both socio-economic and institutional factors (e.g., access to childcare) as well as by cultural differences with respect to gender roles and fertility norms. However, disentangling these influences empirically is not straightforward, as both sets of variables likely influence each other.To deal with this difficulty, the present article focuses on the group of immigrant women and their descendants. It documents that growing up in countries that differ in their fertility rate affects the women's own number of children even if they spend their fertile years under the common institutional setting in Germany. This so called "epidemiological approach" allows relatively clean identification of the cultural influence on fertility. There has been only one such study in the German context so far, which focuses exclusively on first-generation immigrant women. Thanks to a much larger data set (the Mikrozensus 2008, a reprensentative 1% sample of the German population), the present article extends the analysis to second-generation immigrants. The influence of fertility rates in the countries of ancestry is still perceptible here, which is consistent with intergenerational transmission of fertility norms. However, the influence is weaker than in the first generation and still weaker if one parent is from Germany or if the parents are immigrants from two different countries.From a methodological point of view, the present article makes three contributions: First, the large data set makes it possible to study completed fertility by concentrating on women aged 45 and above and to restrict the sample to women who arrived in Germany below the age of 18 and therefore spent most of their fertile years in the country of migration. Second, the large number of observations allows comparing women from the same country of origin who were born in different years or arrived in Germany at different points in time. This within country approach mitigates concerns about unobserved influences on fertility that might be correlated with the country of origin. Finally, the study goes beyond the usual measure of home country influences (total fertility rates) and additionally considers completed cohort fertility rates and direct measures of fertility norms. Das Wichtigste in Kürze (German summary) AbstractBased on a 1% sample of the German populati...

We advance the literature on political budget cycles by testing separately for cycles in expenditures for elections in the legislative and the executive. Using municipal data, we can separately identify these cycles and account for general year effects. For the executive branch, we show that it is important whether the incumbent re-runs. To account for the potential endogeneity associated with this decision, we apply a unique instrumental variables approach based on age and pension eligibility rules. We find sizable and significant effects in expenditures before council elections and before joint elections when the incumbent re-runs.

This study links public sector efficiency to firm growth via several microeconomic channels. The results show that greater public administration efficiency induces higher rates of fast growing firms. Especially corruption and ineffective justice systems were identified as the factors that most impede firms' growth. In addition, public service provision that relies on fees rather than on taxes was associated with higher efficiency.