No abstract

Structures a model of the macrodynamics of international migration using a differential equation to capture the push‐pull forces that propel the migratory current. The model’s architecture is based on the functioning of information feedback between settled friends and family at the destination (migrant stock) and a pool of potential emigrants created by socioeconomic conditions prevailing at the origin. The intensity of the ensuing migratory flow is determined by a nexus of mediators functioning in either society and comprising: (a) legal imperatives such as migration laws; (b) economic imperatives measured by the ratio of income‐per‐capita between destination and origin; (c) political imperatives such as war or other forms of compulsion; (d) natural stimulants such as epidemics and climatic extremes; (e) societal conditions such as job‐hierarchy differences and migration network characteristics; and (f) causes other than the ones motivating the pool members, such as the reasons of the so called “brain drain”. The mathematical function representing the collective of these causes is named the mediating factor, and comprises both steady‐state and transient components. While the model’s architecture is independent of any geographic or temporal specificity, the model is capable of portraying the migration flow between any given origin/destination pair, and over any designated historical period: this through the numerical values of the model parameters derived from the historical, demographic, and economic data of the case. Two specific paradigms serve to demonstrate the model’s tenets and pertinence.

No abstract

Abstract. The research task described herein aims at the structuring of an analytical tool that traces the time course of geophysical phenomena, regional or global, and compares it to the course of long-term solar conditions, long-term meaning decades or a few centuries. The model is based on the premise that since in a last analysis the preponderance of atmospheric, hydrospheric, and, possibly, some aspects of geospheric phenomena are, or have been, powered by energy issuing from the sun ± either now or in the past ± the long-term behavior of such phenomena is ultimatelỳ`c onnected'' to long-term changes occurring in the sun itself. Accordingly, the proposed research ®rstly derives and models a stable surrogate pattern for the long-term solar activity, secondly introduces a transfer-function algorithm for modeling the connection between the surrogate and terrestrial phenomena viewed as partners in the connection, and thirdly probes the connection outcome for episodic or unanticipated eects that may arise due to the fact that in the present context, the connection, should it exist, is very likely nonlinear. Part I of the study presents the theory of the concept, while Part II demonstrates the concept's pertinence to a number of terrestrial phenomena.

Abstract. The research task described herein aims at the structuring of an analytical tool that traces the time course of geophysical phenomena, regional or global, and compares it to the course of long-term solar conditions, long-term meaning decades or a few centuries. The model is based on the premise that since in a last analysis the preponderance of atmospheric, hydrospheric, and, possibly, some aspects of geospheric phenomena are, or have been, powered by energy issuing from the sun ± either now or in the past, the long-term behavior of such phenomena is ultimatelỳ`c onnected'' to long-term changes occurring in the sun itself. Accordingly, the proposed research ®rstly derives and models a stable surrogate pattern for the long-term solar activity, secondly introduces a transfer-function algorithm for modeling the connection between the surrogate and terrestrial phenomena viewed as partners in the connection, and thirdly probes the connection outcome for episodic or unanticipated eects that may arise due to the fact that in the present context, the connection, should it exist, is very likely nonlinear. Part I of the study presents the theory of the concept, while Part II demonstrates the concept's pertinence to a number of terrestrial phenomena.