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In terrestrial high‐latitude regions, observations indicate recent changes in snow cover, permafrost, and soil freeze–thaw transitions due to climate change. These modifications may result in temporal shifts in the growing season and the associated rates of terrestrial productivity. Changes in productivity will influence the ability of these ecosystems to sequester atmospheric CO2. We use the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM), which simulates the soil thermal regime, in addition to terrestrial carbon (C), nitrogen and water dynamics, to explore these issues over the years 1960–2100 in extratropical regions (30–90°N). Our model simulations show decreases in snow cover and permafrost stability from 1960 to 2100. Decreases in snow cover agree well with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite observations collected between the years 1972 and 2000, with Pearson rank correlation coefficients between 0.58 and 0.65. Model analyses also indicate a trend towards an earlier thaw date of frozen soils and the onset of the growing season in the spring by approximately 2–4 days from 1988 to 2000. Between 1988 and 2000, satellite records yield a slightly stronger trend in thaw and the onset of the growing season, averaging between 5 and 8 days earlier. In both, the TEM simulations and satellite records, trends in day of freeze in the autumn are weaker, such that overall increases in growing season length are due primarily to earlier thaw. Although regions with the longest snow cover duration displayed the greatest increase in growing season length, these regions maintained smaller increases in productivity and heterotrophic respiration than those regions with shorter duration of snow cover and less of an increase in growing season length. Concurrent with increases in growing season length, we found a reduction in soil C and increases in vegetation C, with greatest losses of soil C occurring in those areas with more vegetation, but simulations also suggest that this trend could reverse in the future. Our results reveal noteworthy changes in snow, permafrost, growing season length, productivity, and net C uptake, indicating that prediction of terrestrial C dynamics from one decade to the next will require that large‐scale models adequately take into account the corresponding changes in soil thermal regimes.

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In boreal and tundra ecosystems the freeze state of soils limits rates of photosynthesis and respiration. Here we develop a technique to identify the timing of freeze and thaw transitions of high northern latitude land areas using satellite data from the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I). Our results indicate that in Eurasia there was a trend toward earlier thaw dates in tundra (−3.3 ± 1.8 days/decade) and larch biomes (−4.5 ± 1.8 days/decade) over the period 1988–2002. In North America there was a trend toward later freeze dates in evergreen conifer forests by 3.1 ± 1.2 days/decade that led, in part, to a lengthening of the growing season by 5.1 ± 2.9 days/decade. The growing season length in North American tundra increased by 5.4 ± 3.1 days/decade. Despite the trend toward earlier thaw dates in Eurasian larch forests, the growing season length did not increase because of parallel changes in timing of the fall freeze (−5.4 ± 2.1 days/decade), which led to a forward shift of the growing season. Thaw timing was negatively correlated with surface air temperatures in the spring, whereas freeze timing was positively correlated with surface air temperatures in the fall, suggesting that surface air temperature is one of several factors that determines the timing of soil thaw and freeze. The high spatial resolution, frequent temporal coverage, and duration of the SMMR and SSM/I satellite records makes them suitable for rigorous time series analysis and change detection in northern terrestrial ecosystems.