Timely and accurate forecasts of tropical cyclones (TCs, i.e., hurricanes and typhoons) are of great importance for risk mitigation. Although in the past two decades there has been steady improvement in track prediction, improvement on intensity prediction is still highly challenging. Cooling of the upper ocean by TC‐induced mixing is an important process that impacts TC intensity. Based on detail in situ air‐deployed ocean and atmospheric measurement pairs collected during the Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) field campaign, we modify the widely used Sea Surface Temperature Potential Intensity (SST_PI) index by including information from the subsurface ocean temperature profile to form a new Ocean coupling Potential Intensity (OC_PI) index. Using OC_PI as a TC maximum intensity predictor and applied to a 14 year (1998–2011) western North Pacific TC archive, OC_PI reduces SST_PI‐based overestimation of archived maximum intensity by more than 50% and increases the correlation of maximum intensity estimation from r2 = 0.08 to 0.31. For slow‐moving TCs that cause the greatest cooling, r2 increases to 0.56 and the root‐mean square error in maximum intensity is 11 m s−1. As OC_PI can more realistically characterize the ocean contribution to TC intensity, it thus serves as an effective new index to improve estimation and prediction of TC maximum intensity.

The oceanic surface mixed layer heat budget in the central equatorial Indian Ocean is calculated from observations at two mooring sites (0 S 79 E and 1.5 S 79 E) during three active and calm phases of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events between September 2011 and January 2012. At both mooring locations, the surface mixed layer is generally heated during MJO calm phases. During MJO active phases at both mooring locations, the surface mixed layer is always cooled by the net surface heat flux and also sometimes by the turbulent heat flux at the bottom of the surface mixed layer. The turbulent heat flux at the bottom of the surface mixed layer, however, varies greatly among different MJO active phases and between the two mooring locations. A barrier layer exerts control on the turbulent heat flux at the base of the surface mixed layer; we quantify this barrier layer strength by a ''barrier layer potential energy,'' which depends on the thickness of the barrier layer, the thickness of the surface mixed layer, and the density stratification across the isothermal layer. During one observed MJO active phase, a strong turbulent heat flux into the mixed layer was diagnosed, despite the presence of a 10220 m thick barrier layer. This was due to the strong shear across the barrier layer driven by the westerly winds, which provided sufficient available kinetic energy to erode the barrier layer. To better simulate and predict net surface heat fluxes and the MJO, models must estimate the oceanic barrier layer potential energy, background shear, stratification, and surface forcing accurately.

The diurnal variability and the environmental conditions that support the moisture resurgence of MJO events observed during the Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability (CINDY)/DYNAMO campaign in October–December 2011 are investigated using in situ observations and the cloud-resolving fully air–ocean–wave Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS). Spectral density and wavelet analysis of the total precipitable water (TPW) constructed from the DYNAMO soundings and TRMM satellite precipitation reveal a deep layer of vapor resurgence during the observed Wheeler and Hendon real-time multivariate MJO index phases 5–8 (MJO suppressed phase), which include diurnal, quasi-2-, quasi-3–4-, quasi-6–8-, and quasi-16-day oscillations. A similar oscillatory pattern is found in the DYNAMO moorings sea surface temperature analysis, suggesting a tightly coupled atmosphere and ocean system during these periods. COAMPS hindcast focused on the 12–16 November 2011 event suggests that both the diurnal sea surface temperature (SST) pumping and horizontal and vertical moisture transport associated with the westward propagating mixed Rossby–Gravity (MRG) waves play an essential role in the moisture resurgence during this period. Idealized COAMPS simulations of MRG waves are used to estimate the MRG and diurnal SST contributions to the overall moisture increase. These idealized MRG sensitivity experiments showed the TPW increase varies from 9% to 13% with the largest changes occurring in the simulations that included a diurnal SST variation of 2.5°C as observed.

Introduction and Motivation 1.1. Why Are We Interested in the Upper Ocean Salinity Variation? Ocean dynamics complicates the relationship between surface freshwater flux (evaporation minus precipitation) and the surface mixed layer salinity (MLS) in the open ocean (e.g.