We studied the natal and breeding dispersal of yearling and adult House Wrens (Troglodytes aedon) for 7 yr in central Illinois. The forested study areas contained 910 identical nest boxes placed in a grid pattern. On average 38.1% (n = 643) of the adult males and 23.3% (n = 1,468) of the adult females present in one year returned the next; 2.8% (n = 6,299) of the nestlings that survived to leave the nest returned each year. Adult male (median distance = 67 m) and adult female (median = 134 m) breeding dispersal was less than yearling male (median = 607.5 m) and yearling female (median = 674 m) natal dispersal. Females that returned had produced more offspring the previous season than had nonreturning females, and females that successfully produced at least one chick in their last nesting attempt of the previous season moved shorter distances than did unsuccessful females. There were, however, no consistent differences between returning and nonreturning females in two other measures of reproductive success. Females that were unsuccessful in their last breeding attempt of the previous year were more likely to be successful in their next attempt if they moved two or more territories than if they did not move. Reproductive success did not affect the likelihood that a male would return nor the distance that he moved. The success of subsequent nesting attempts by males was also not related to the distance moved. Inbreeding avoidance may explain differences between breeding and natal dispersal, but it does not explain the lack of difference in dispersal of yearling females and males. Differences between adult and yearling dispersal are best explained by advantages accruing to adults that remain near former breeding sites and by the necessity for yearlings to move farther because of their late return from the wintering grounds. The advantages for adults to reoccupy previous breeding sites are counterbalanced, especially in females, by advantages associated with moving after breeding failure.

Climate change has affected the seasonal phenology of a variety of taxa, including that of migratory birds and their critical food resources. However, whether climate-induced changes in breeding phenology affect individual fitness, and how these changes might, therefore, influence selection on breeding date remain unresolved. Here, we use a 36-year dataset from a long-term, individual-based study of House Wrens (Troglodytes aedon) to test whether the timing of avian breeding seasons is associated with annual changes in temperature, which have increased to a small but significant extent locally since the onset of the study in 1980. Increasing temperature was associated with an advancement of breeding date in the population, as the onset of breeding within years was closely associated with daily spring temperatures. Warmer springs were also associated with a reduced incubation period, but reduced incubation periods were associated with a prolonged duration of nestling provisioning. Nest productivity, in terms of fledgling production, was not associated with temperature, but wetter springs reduced fledging success. Most years were characterized by selection for earlier breeding, but cool and wet years resulted in stabilizing selection on breeding date. Our results indicate that climate change and increasing spring temperatures can affect suites of life-history traits, including selection on breeding date. Increasing temperatures may favor earlier breeding, but the extent to which the phenology of populations might advance may be constrained by reductions in fitness associated with early breeding during cool, wet years. Variability in climatic conditions will, therefore, shape the extent to which seasonal organisms can respond to changes in their environment.

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