Antigenic and genetic analysis of the hemagglutinin of approximately 13,000 human influenza A (H3N2) viruses from six continents during 2002-2007 revealed that there was continuous circulation in east and Southeast Asia (E-SE Asia) via a region-wide network of temporally overlapping epidemics and that epidemics in the temperate regions were seeded from this network each year. Seed strains generally first reached Oceania, North America, and Europe, and later South America. This evidence suggests that once A (H3N2) viruses leave E-SE Asia, they are unlikely to contribute to long-term viral evolution. If the trends observed during this period are an accurate representation of overall patterns of spread, then the antigenic characteristics of A (H3N2) viruses outside E-SE Asia may be forecast each year based on surveillance within E-SE Asia, with consequent improvements to vaccine strain selection.

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Influenza A virus-specific CD8 þ cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) provide a degree of crossstrain protection that is potentially subverted by mutation. Here we describe the sequential emergence of such variants within CTL epitopes for a persistently infected, immunocompromised infant. Further analysis in immunodeficient and wild-type mice supports the view that CTL escape variants arise frequently in influenza, accumulate with time and revert in the absence of immune pressure under MHCI-mismatched conditions. Viral fitness, the abundance of endogenous CD8 þ T cell responses and T cell receptor repertoire diversity influence the nature of these de novo mutants. Structural characterization of dominant escape variants shows how the peptide-MHCI interaction is modified to affect variant-MHCI stability. The mechanism of influenza virus escape thus looks comparable to that recognized for chronic RNA viruses like HIV and HCV, suggesting that immunocompromised patients with prolonged viral infection could have an important part in the emergence of influenza quasispecies.