This article explains the main stages and results of economic development in Russia since the early 1990s. It describes the process of the formation and the basic features of a three-sector economic model, as well as the reasons for its stability and existing constraints on economic growth. The authors consider the most likely scenario for the evolution of the current economic model under steadily declining export revenues. They also investigate fiscal and social risks and alternatives in economic policy.

The article includes the review of the structural changes in the Russian economy in 2005-2016 compared to some developed and developing countries. The authors suggest an institutional explanation to the slow-up of the structural changes in Russia. The modelled value added structure was constructed in terms of the primary income groups (hidden wages and salaries included) and the relationship between the gross operating surplus behavior and investment behavior for three macro-sectors of the Russian economy: commodity-driven business, large non-commodity-driven business, SME. It is shown in the article that the growth of the surplus share in the value added structure resulted into the investment growth only in the commodity-driven macro-sector. In the large non-commodity-driven sector the investment share declined under the surplus share growth. In SME sector the investment share was growing under the surplus share decline and wages and salaries share growth (including hidden wages and salaries). The authors suggest better taking the specific differences between the institutional macro-sectors into account when shaping the structural policy agenda.

The article discusses the current stage of economic development in Russia. In particular, the authors analyze the problems caused by both the inefficiencies accumulated during the previous years, and the deterioration of the external conditions in 2014. They also stress the factors that can support and prevent the restructuring of the Russian economy and its further growth. In conclusion they list economic policy scenarios appropriate for the new situation.

The issues to be discussed at the panel included: can past experience of economy recovery following crises of 1998 and 2008 be helpful at present; what sectors were driving growth of the Russian economy in the last decade, and are they able to perform this role in the future; what growth rate is feasible in 2021; what amendments to the national projects aimed at boosting growth are likely. In addition to that the panel participants specified key factors affecting productivity and output trends in Russia, suggested ways to support economy in the course of “coronacrisis”, and pointed out to economic policy measures that could accelerate economic growth.

По какому сценарию будет развиваться экономика России в ближайшие три года? Продолжится ли рост экономики в следующем году или возобновится рецессия? Что будет с курсом рубля? Все эти вопросы волнуют не только рядовых россиян, но и многих экспертов. сейчас понятно, что условия развития российской экономики во многом будет определяться мировыми тенденциями в динамике совокупного спроса и финансового сектора. среднесрочные прогнозы Правительства России говорят нам, что уже со следующего года начнется уверенный рост даже в консервативных условиях развития мировой экономики. Однако мы сомневаемся в том, что текущую слабую тенденцию роста экономики можно продлевать в будущее столь же легко, как в прошлые годы, и видим для этого ряд существенных причин.Проведенный сценарный анализ динамики российской экономики в контексте мировых процессов позволил сделать несколько не ожиданные выводы о том, что для России в среднесрочной перспективе может быть хорошо, а что -плохо.