Finding modules (or clusters) in large, complex networks is a challenging task, in particular if one is not interested in a full decomposition of the whole network into modules. We consider modular networks that also contain nodes that do not belong to one of modules but to several or to none at all. A new method for analyzing such networks is presented. It is based on spectral analysis of random walks on modular networks. In contrast to other spectral clustering approaches, we use different transition rules of the random walk. This leads to much more prominent gaps in the spectrum of the adapted random walk and allows for easy identification of the network's modular structure, and also identifying the nodes belonging to these modules. We also give a characterization of that set of nodes that do not belong to any module, which we call transition region. Finally, by analyzing the transition region, we describe an algorithm that identifies so called hub-nodes inside the transition region that are important connections between modules or between a module and the rest of the network. The resulting algorithms scale linearly with network size (if the network connectivity is sparse) and thus can also be applied to very large networks.

Finding metastable sets as dominant structures of Markov processes has been shown to be especially useful in modeling interesting slow dynamics of various real world complex processes. Furthermore, coarse graining of such processes based on their dominant structures leads to better understanding and dimension reduction of observed systems. However, in many cases, e.g. for nonreversible Markov processes, dominant structures are often not formed by metastable sets but by important cycles or mixture of both. This paper aims at understanding and identifying these different types of dominant structures for reversible as well as nonreversible ergodic Markov processes. Our algorithmic approach generalizes spectral based methods for reversible process by using Schur decomposition techniques which can tackle also nonreversible cases. We illustrate the mathematical construction of our new approach by numerical experiments.

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The Covid-19 disease has caused a world-wide pandemic with more than 60 million positive cases and more than 1.4 million deaths by the end of November 2020. As long as effective medical treatment and vaccination are not available, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, self-isolation and quarantine as well as far-reaching shutdowns of economic activity and public life are the only available strategies to prevent the virus from spreading. These interventions must meet conflicting requirements where some objectives, like the minimization of disease-related deaths or the impact on health systems, demand for stronger counter-measures, while others, such as social and economic costs, call for weaker counter-measures. Therefore, finding the optimal compromise of counter-measures requires the solution of a multi-objective optimization problem that is based on accurate prediction of future infection spreading for all combinations of counter-measures under consideration. We present a strategy for construction and solution of such a multi-objective optimization problem with real-world applicability. The strategy is based on a micro-model allowing for accurate prediction via a realistic combination of person-centric data-driven human mobility and behavior, stochastic infection models and disease progression models including micro-level inclusion of governmental intervention strategies. For this micro-model, a surrogate macro-model is constructed and validated that is much less computationally expensive and can therefore be used in the core of a numerical solver for the multi-objective optimization problem. The resulting set of optimal compromises between counter-measures (Pareto front) is discussed and its meaning for policy decisions is outlined.

We present a new cycle flow based method for finding fuzzy partitions of weighted directed networks coming from time series data. We show that this method overcomes essential problems of most existing clustering approaches, which tend to ignore important directional information by considering only one-step, one-directional node connections. Our method introduces a novel measure of communication between nodes using multi-step, bidirectional transitions encoded by a cycle decomposition of the probability flow. Symmetric properties of this measure enable us to construct an undirected graph that captures information flow of the original graph seen by the data and apply clustering methods designed for undirected graphs. Finally, we demonstrate our algorithm by analyzing earthquake time series data, which naturally induce (time-)directed networks.