This paper looks at the distribution of disposable income by deciles to indicate how specific mitigating measures have influenced income groups and considers the effectiveness of different combinations of containment measures in the European Union. Simulations using the EUROMOD tax-benefit microsimulation model imply that the mitigating effects of the simulated measures are regressive, with a bigger influence on the bottom part of the income distribution. It is also observed that old democracies benefit from these measures more than new democracies. Surprisingly, our results further reveal that for the two highest decile income groups, the COVID-19 containment measures are stronger in new democracies. Finally, a qualitative comparative analysis of 19 EU countries suggests that each country should apply mixes of containment measures that fit its own context. Although there is no one-size-fits-all policy, old democracies seem more successful at handling the consequences of the COVID-19 crisis than new democracies. This study complements the literature as it shows how COVID-19 measures have influenced household income groups, and second, it adds to earlier studies by clarifying that only specific context-dependent combinations of containment measures are successful at preventing the loss of people’s living standards, thereby giving policymakers the necessary leeway to formulate effective policies.

This article explores how the Gender Pension Gap (GPG)—the relative difference in average pension received by men and women—might evolve in the future in various European countries, given past, current, and projected future labour market behaviour and earnings of women and men, and current pension regulations. The GPG reflects career inequalities between women and men, though these are partly mitigated by the redistributive impact of the public retirement pensions. They are further mitigated by survivor benefits. This study aims to document both mechanisms in the projections of the GPG. As the GPG varies widely across European countries, we analyse countries with a high (Luxembourg), high and low middle (Belgium and Switzerland Portugal), and low (Slovenia) GPG. We find that the GPG will fall significantly in all five countries over the coming decades. The fundamental drivers behind this development are discussed. In addition to the base scenario, we simulate two variants to show the impact of the Gender Pension Coverage Gap and of survivor pensions. Additionally, we project the GPG if current labour market gender gaps were to remain at their present level, and, conversely, if these were to disappear overnight. These alternative scenarios, one of which also serves as a robustness test, suggest that the future decline of the GPG is largely the result of labour market developments that have already happened during the past decades.

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