The Field experiments were conducted during 2012-19 to determine the effect of changing weather such as (Tmax, Tmin, Tavg, Solar radiation and CO2 concentration) on grain yield, LAI, Anthesis days and maturity days of four rice cultivars i.e (Swarna sub 1, Sarjoo 52, Pant Dhan 4 and NDR 359) at the college of forestry farm , SHUATS Prayagraj. The DSSAT-CERES rice model was calibrated and validated, for the cultivars under Prayagraj conditions and it was observed that the values i.e Percent error, RMSE, nRMSE and Pearson correlation coefficient (r) were good in agreement and within permissible limit. Among all the four varieties NDR 359 yields more followed by pant dhan 4, Swarna sub 1 and sarjoo-52. The result revealed that by increasing temperature (Tmax, Tmin, Tavg) for all the variety and phenophases the yield got reduced but under increased condition of Solar radiation and CO2 concentration the yield got increased. In case of LAI same result was observed but during the phenophase of flowering to maturity stage of the crop there was no effect found. During the interaction between changing weather with anthesis days and maturity days it was found that the anthesis days and maturity days got increased with increased in Tmax and Tavg. Other weather parameter has no effect on it. The interaction of weather parameter with the yield, LAI, anthesis days and aturity days were found significant at 5% or 1% level for all the four varieties and henophases. The research outcome indicates that, the future farming will be challengeable due to climate change, we must prepare with suitable varieties and crop management plan to tackle the situation.
The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change on productivity of rice cultivars Swarna sub-1, Sarjoo-52, Pant Dhan 4, and NDR-359 for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090 for the Prayagraj district of Uttar Pradesh using the Marksim and DSSAT crop simulation model under four different climate change scenarios, namely RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. The model evaluation indicated good performance with both calibration (PE=2.43,6.26,4.31,3.79, RMSE= 132.79, 345.13, 237.44, 237.85, nRMSE = 2.53, 7.31, 4.46, 3.97) and validation (PE =3.58, 10.03, 4.28, 6.09, RMSE = 197.88, 456.35, 238.37, 366.52, nRMSE = 3.95, 10.55, 4.67, 6.39) for Swarna sub-1, Sarjoo-52, Pant Dhan 4 and NDR-359 cultivars respectively, which showed good agreement between anticipated and observed values. For the Prayagraj region, NDR-359 yields the most among the four varieties, followed by Pant Dhan 4, Swarna Sub-1, and Sarjoo-52. By examining the future climate data that MarkSim's weather generator downloaded, it was noticed that all other weather variables, such as solar radiation, average maximum and minimum temperature increases while rainfall decreases. The findings of the study reveal that, among all projection scenarios, the grain yield is greater for RCP 2.6 and lowest for RCP 8.5. Analysis of the expected climate scenario data with yield revealed that the yield was higher in 2030 and lower in 2050. Additionally, it was observed that again in 2090 the yield gets increased for RCP 2.6 & decreased for RCP 4.5,6.0 & 8.5. Among all the four cultivars the yield of Sarjoo-52 will be reduced for RCP 4.5,6.0 & 8.5 for the year of 2050,2070 & 2090.These findings may offer insightful information about possible climate change effects on rice yield and suitable adaptive strategies to minimize the negative effects of future climate change.
In order to determine the impact of climate change, namely the temperature, on the production of the swarna rice variety, the study was carried out in the Khordha district of Odisha between 2014 and 2019. DSSAT CERES-Rice crop simulation model's weather modification window was mostly used to experiment with temperature adjustments for the crop's anthesis stage (60-90 DAP), specifically variations in maximum and average temperatures of (0.5 -4.0 °C) and (0.5 -3.0 °C), respectively. The experiment was performed three times and set up as a split plot design. The findings demonstrated that when temperature increased over the threshold limit, the yield decreased. Only the first planting date exhibited a significant interaction between the highest and average temperature with grain yield and the other two dates of sowing showed no significant interaction.
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