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Citation: Williams, N., and M. Powers. 2019. Medium-term effects of active management on the structure of mature Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) stands.Abstract. We developed an observational study to (1) examine differences in the structure of mature Douglas-fir stands representing thinned, structural retention harvest and unmanaged conditions, and (2) assess the extent to which active management in mature stands expedites development of old-growth structure, relative to two old-growth indices. Time since treatment averaged 38 and 22 yr in thinned and retention harvest conditions, respectively, and stand age ranged from 106 to 193 yr when sampled. Differences in stand structure were apparent between all three management conditions, with attributes associated with stumps, live tree diameter diversity, understory vegetation, and vertical foliage structure being the strongest individual drivers of these differences. Mean old-growth index scores were lower than expected of true old-growth for each of the management conditions examined here, but were not significantly different between thinned and unmanaged stands. Our results suggest thinning in mature stands may promote certain elements of old-growth structure, including foliage height diversity, but also indicate the need for provisions against the depletion of dead wood resources. Stumps are an understudied dead wood structure, and in actively managed mature stands, our results imply that stumps may provide a degree of functional substitution where down log availability is low.

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Background Climate change is expected to increase fire activity across the circumboreal zone, including central Siberia. However, few studies have quantitatively assessed potential changes in fire regime characteristics, or considered possible spatial variation in the magnitude of change. Moreover, while simulations indicate that changes in climate are likely to drive major shifts in Siberian vegetation, knowledge of future forest dynamics under the joint influence of changes in climate and fire regimes remains largely theoretical. We used the forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, with PnET-Succession and the BFOLDS fire extension to simulate changes in vegetation and fire regime characteristics under four alternative climate scenarios in three 10,000-km2 study landscapes distributed across a large latitudinal gradient in lowland central Siberia. We evaluated vegetation change using the fire life history strategies adopted by forest tree species: fire resisters, fire avoiders, and fire endurers. Results Annual burned area, the number of fires per year, fire size, and fire intensity all increased under climate change. The relative increase in fire activity was greatest in the northernmost study landscape, leading to a reduction in the difference in fire rotation period between study landscapes. Although the number of fires per year increased progressively with the magnitude of climate change, mean fire size peaked under mild or moderate climate warming in each of our study landscapes, suggesting that fuel limitations and past fire perimeters will feed back to reduce individual fire extent under extreme warming, relative to less extreme warming scenarios. In the Southern and Mid-taiga landscapes, we observed a major shift from fire resister-dominated forests to forests dominated by broadleaved deciduous fire endurers (Betula and Populus genera) under moderate and extreme climate warming scenarios, likely associated with the substantial increase in fire activity. These changes were accompanied by a major decrease in average cohort age and total vegetation biomass across the simulation landscapes. Conclusions Our results imply that climate change will greatly increase fire activity and reduce spatial heterogeneity in fire regime characteristics across central Siberia. Potential ecological consequences include a widespread shift toward forests dominated by broadleaved deciduous species that employ a fire endurer strategy to persist in an increasingly fire-prone environment.