Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as species experience changes in distribution in response to climate change.

No abstract

There is widespread evidence that multiple drivers of global change, such as habitat degradation, invasive species, and climate change, are influencing wildlife. Understanding how these drivers interact with and affect species may be difficult because outcomes depend on the magnitude and duration of environmental change and the life history of the organism. In addition, various environmental drivers may be evaluated and managed at different spatial scales. We used a historical dataset from 1991 to 1994 and current information from 2010 to 2012 to examine whether occupancy patterns of wintering raptors were consistent with regional changes in distribution or habitat conditions within a local management unit, the Morley Nelson Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (NCA). We predicted that if local populations reflected regional shifts, then rates of raptor occupancy within the NCA would be higher compared to historical estimates and birds would use different habitats compared to historical use. Alternatively, if local populations were determined by habitat conditions, then we predicted that occupancy rate of raptors within the NCA would be lower compared to historical estimates and current habitat use would be consistent with historical use. Results support the hypothesis that northward distributional shifts influenced wintering raptor populations in southwest Idaho to a greater extent than local habitat conditions. Wintering raptors had higher occupancy rates in 2010-2012 compared to 1991-1994, whereas invasive grasses have increased and native shrubs have decreased suggesting that habitat suitability for raptors has declined over time. On the species level, changes in habitat use were associated with greater increases in occupancy rates in

ABSTRACT. The Short-eared Owl (Asio flammeus) is an open-country species breeding in the northern United States and Canada, and has likely experienced a long-term, range-wide, and substantial decline. However, the cause and magnitude of the decline is not well understood. We set forth to address the first two of six previously proposed conservation priorities to be addressed for this species:(1) better define habitat use and (2) improve population monitoring. We recruited 131 volunteers to survey over 6.2 million ha within the state of Idaho for Short-eared Owls during the 2015 breeding season. We surveyed 75 transects, 71 of which were surveyed twice, and detected Short-eared Owls on 27 transects. We performed multiscale occupancy modeling to identify habitat associations, and performed multiscale abundance modeling to generate a state-wide population estimate. Our results suggest that within the state of Idaho, Short-eared Owls are more often found in areas with marshland or riparian habitat or areas with greater amounts of sagebrush habitat at the 1750 ha transect scale. At the 50 ha point scale, Short-eared Owls tend to associate positively with fallow and bare dirt agricultural land and negatively with grassland. Cropland was not chosen at the broader transect scale suggesting that Short-eared Owls may prefer more heterogeneous landscapes. On the surface our results may seem contradictory to the presumed land use by a "grassland" species; however, the grasslands of the Intermountain West, consisting largely of invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), lack the complex structure shown to be preferred by these owls. We suggest the local adaptation to agriculture represents the next best habitat to their historical native habitat preferences. Regardless, we have confirmed regional differences that should be considered in conservation planning for this species. Last, our results demonstrate the feasibility, efficiency, and effectiveness of utilizing public participation in scientific research to achieve a robust sampling methodology across the broad geography of the Intermountain West.Recensement de Hiboux des marais (Asio flammeus) dans la région Intramontagnarde Ouest nordaméricaine : utilisation de la participation citoyenne pour effectuer un suivi à grande échelle RÉSUMÉ. Le Hibou des marais (Asio flammeus), espèce de milieux ouverts nichant dans le nord des États-Unis et au Canada, a vraisemblablement subi une baisse importante de longue date et à grande échelle. Toutefois, la cause et la magnitude de cette baisse ne sont pas bien comprises. Nous avons choisi d'étudier les deux premières de six priorités de conservation proposées antérieurement pour cette espèce : 1) mieux établir l'utilisation de l'habitat; et 2) améliorer le suivi de la population. Nous avons recruté 131 bénévoles pour inventorier plus de 6,2 millions d'ha dans l'État de l'Idaho durant la saison de nidification 2015 du Hibou des marais. Nous avons inventorié 75 transects, dont 71 à deux reprises, et avons détecté le Hibou des marais dans 27...

Estimating species density and abundance is challenging but important for establishing conservation and management strategies. Significant progress has been made toward estimating Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) abundance in the conterminous United States of America (USA) but much less is known about eagle abundance in Alaska. Here, we paired migration count and GPS-tracking data collected near Gunsight Mountain, Alaska, in a Bayesian framework to estimate the number of Golden Eagles in southcentral Alaska. We estimated 1204 (95% credible interval: 866, 1526) potentially breeding (4 yr old) Golden Eagles annually moved through the Gunsight Mountain migration corridor and summered over an area of 150,325 km 2 in south-central Alaska, equating to a density of 0.80 potentially breeding eagles/100 km 2 . By extrapolating across the species' nesting range in Alaska (1,180,489 km 2 ) and incorporating published productivity and age-specific survival rates for eagles ,4 yr old into our hierarchical model, we estimated 12,717 (95% credible interval: 9043, 16,349) Golden Eagles of all ages occur in Alaska, annually. We propose this as a conservative statewide population estimate because we used methods that likely underestimated population size. Even so, our estimate is three to five times larger than previous estimates and likely represents about one quarter of the USA's population.