Summary Background The COVID-19 pandemic could lead to disruptions to provision of HIV services for people living with HIV and those at risk of acquiring HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, where UNAIDS estimated that more than two-thirds of the approximately 38 million people living with HIV resided in 2018. We aimed to predict the potential effects of such disruptions on HIV-related deaths and new infections in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods In this modelling study, we used five well described models of HIV epidemics (Goals, Optima HIV, HIV Synthesis, an Imperial College London model, and Epidemiological MODeling software [EMOD]) to estimate the effect of various potential disruptions to HIV prevention, testing, and treatment services on HIV-related deaths and new infections in sub-Saharan Africa lasting 6 months over 1 year from April 1, 2020. We considered scenarios in which disruptions affected 20%, 50%, and 100% of the population. Findings A 6-month interruption of supply of antiretroviral therapy (ART) drugs across 50% of the population of people living with HIV who are on treatment would be expected to lead to a 1·63 times (median across models; range 1·39–1·87) increase in HIV-related deaths over a 1-year period compared with no disruption. In sub-Saharan Africa, this increase amounts to a median excess of HIV deaths, across all model estimates, of 296 000 (range 229 023–420 000) if such a high level of disruption occurred. Interruption of ART would increase mother-to-child transmission of HIV by approximately 1·6 times. Although an interruption in the supply of ART drugs would have the largest impact of any potential disruptions, effects of poorer clinical care due to overstretched health facilities, interruptions of supply of other drugs such as co-trimoxazole, and suspension of HIV testing would all have a substantial effect on population-level mortality (up to a 1·06 times increase in HIV-related deaths over a 1-year period due to disruptions affecting 50% of the population compared with no disruption). Interruption to condom supplies and peer education would make populations more susceptible to increases in HIV incidence, although physical distancing measures could lead to reductions in risky sexual behaviour (up to 1·19 times increase in new HIV infections over a 1-year period if 50% of people are affected). Interpretation During the COVID-19 pandemic, the primary priority for governments, donors, suppliers, and communities should focus on maintaining uninterrupted supply of ART drugs for people with HIV to avoid additional HIV-related deaths. The provision of other HIV prevention measures is also important to prevent any increase in HIV incidence. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BackgroundStavudine is an effective and inexpensive antiretroviral drug, but no longer recommended by WHO for first-line antiretroviral regimens in resource-limited settings due to toxicity concerns. Because of the high cost of alternative drugs, it has not been feasible to replace stavudine in most adults in the Malawi ART programme. We aimed to provide policy makers with a detailed picture of stavudine toxicities in Malawians on longer-term ART, in order to facilitate prioritization of stavudine replacement among other measures to improve the quality of ART programmes.MethodsProspective cohort of Malawian adults who had just completed one year of stavudine containing ART in an urban clinic, studying peripheral neuropathy, lipodystrophy, diabetes mellitus, high lactate syndromes, pancreatitis and dyslipidemia during 12 months follow up. Stavudine dosage was 30 mg irrespective of weight. Cox regression was used to determine associations with incident toxicities.Results253 patients were enrolled, median age 36 years, 62.5% females. Prevalence rates (95%-confidence interval) of toxicities after one year on stavudine were: peripheral neuropathy 21.3% (16.5–26.9), lipodystrophy 14.7% (2.4–8.1), high lactate syndromes 0.0% (0–1.4), diabetes mellitus 0.8% (0–2.8), pancreatitis 0.0% (0–1.5). Incidence rates per 100 person-years (95%-confidence interval) during the second year on stavudine were: peripheral neuropathy 19.8 (14.3–26.6), lipodystrophy 11.4 (7.5–16.3), high lactate syndromes 2.1 (0.7–4.9), diabetes mellitus 0.4 (0.0–1.4), pancreatitis 0.0 (0.0–0.2). Prevalence of hypercholesterolemia and hypertriglyceridemia increased from 12.1% to 21.1% and from 29.5% to 37.6% respectively between 12 and 24 months. 5.5% stopped stavudine, 1.3% died and 4.0% defaulted during follow up. Higher age was an independent risk factor for incident peripheral neuropathy and lipodystrophy.ConclusionStavudine associated toxicities continued to accumulate during the second year of ART, especially peripheral neuropathy and lipodystrophy and more so at increasing age. Our findings support investments for replacing stavudine in first-line regimens in sub-Saharan Africa.

We applied a simulation model of HIV to analyze the effects of 3 and 6-month disruptions in health services as a result of COVID-19. We found that disruptions to primary prevention programs (male circumcision, behavior change programs, condom distribution) would have small but transitory effects on new infections that might be more than offset by reductions in commercial and multi-partner sex due to lock downs. However, if COVID-19 leads to disruptions in ART services the impacts on mortality could be severe, doubling or tripling the estimated number of HIV deaths in 2020.

ObjectivesTo assess the causes of bacteraemia in young infants and susceptibility to first-line antibiotics (benzylpenicillin plus gentamicin) at the Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital (QECH), Malawi during 2002–2007.DesignRetrospective analysis of demographic and microbiological data using laboratory records.SettingQECH is Malawi's largest hospital with 7000 neonates admitted annually, 9% for septicaemia.PatientsAll infants aged 60 days or less admitted to QECH that had a blood culture taken over the 6-year period.Main outcome measures6754 blood cultures were taken. 3323 organisms were isolated: one-third were pathogens, two-thirds contaminants. Gram-positive organisms (53%) were more common than gram-negatives (47%). Four organisms made up half of all pathogens: Staphylococcus aureus (15.3%), group B streptococci (13.5%), non-typhoidal salmonellae (12.6%) and Escherichia coli (10.5%). Apart from non-typhoidal salmonellae and Streptococcus pneumoniae, most organisms were more common in the first week of life than later. Overall, 28% of isolates during 2002–2007 were resistant to first-line antibiotic, higher than observed during 1996–2001 (22%). Penicillin susceptibility fluctuated while gram-negative resistance to gentamicin increased from 17% to 27% over the study period.ConclusionsIn the QECH, pathogens causing young infant sepsis are an unusual mix of organisms seen in both developed and developing countries. Resistance to first-line antibiotics is higher than observed in most studies. Ongoing monitoring is needed and clinical outcome data would aid interpretation of findings. A high proportion of blood cultures were contaminated with skin flora—improved training and supervision of phlebotomists are needed to improve the utility of taking blood cultures.