This study aims : (a) to analyze the factors that influence the production of great red chili farming, (b) to analyze major factors affecting the technical inefficiency of great red chili farming, and (c) to analyze the behavior of large red chili farmers in dealing with the risks of production and prices. Results showed that most variables, both technical and socio-economic variables in the model, had expected signs significantly. Some of the inputs reduced risk, such as use of seeds, fertilizer N, PPC and hired labor. Some other inputs generated. Average TE values either without or with entering element of risk were each of 0.83 and 0.82, but with different TE distribution. Total farmers achieving more than 0.80 of TE were (68.68%) without including the risks, and (71.71%) by incorporating risk. Great red chili farmers on prices were risk takers. It implies that the farmers with TE value less than 0.80 are the focused target of upgrading technical and managerial capabilities. Technology design and application in the future can be carried out by reducing excessive use of inputs and increasing limiting factors. Key words : technical efficiency, risk, stochastic frontier production function, great red chili ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk (a) menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi produksi usahatani cabai merah besar; (b) menganalisis faktor-faktor utama yang mempengaruhi in-efisiensi teknis dalam usahatani cabai merah besar; serta (c) menganalisis perilaku petani cabai merah besar dalam menghadapi risiko usahatani dan harga. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar peubah baik yang sifatnya teknis maupun sosial ekonomi yang dimasukkan dalam model adalah memiliki tanda sesuai harapan dan sebagian signifikan. Beberapa input bersifat sebagai pengurang risiko seperti penggunaan benih, pupuk N, PPC, dan tenaga kerja luar keluarga, sedangkan beberapa input-input lainnya bersifat sebagai pembangkit risiko. Rata-rata nilai TE baik yang tanpa maupun dengan memasukkan unsur risiko masing-masing sebesar 0,83 dan 0,82, tetapi dengan sebaran TE yang berbeda. Proporsi petani yang mencapai TE lebih dari 0,80 masing-masing sebesar (68,68%) tanpa memasukkan risiko dan (71,71%) dengan memasukkan risiko. Perilaku petani cabai merah besar terhadap harga adalah berani mengambil risiko (risk taker). Implikasi kebijakan penting adalah

No abstract

Fluctuations of oil prices generally affect performance of manufacturing sectors and macroeconomic condition in Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to analyze the volatility of international oil prices and its impact on manufacturing sectors and macroeconomic performance. The analytical methods used are the ARCH-GARCH model and Recursive Dynamic CGE. Volatility of international oil prices tends to vary over time (time varying) and increases. In addition, the impacts also vary among industries. Volatility of world oil prices has a tendency to provide negative influence on the Indonesian manufacturing sectors and macroeconomic performance. Nevertheless, advanced durability against shock volatility performed by the manufacturing sector tending to have linkages with the agricultural sector, such as processed food, fertilizer and pesticide.