In oil-exporting countries such as members of the OPEC, fluctuations in oil prices exert a significant impact on the domestic economy. Currently, a sharp reduction in oil prices results in several adverse effects; however, for such a crude-oil exporter that is also an importer of petroleum products as Vietnam, does a rise or drop in oil prices is beneficial to its development? This paper attempts to determine the oil price threshold while analyzing oil price effects on several macro factors, such as inflation, GDP growth, budget deficit, and unemployment rate over the 2000-2015 period. Using TVAR model, we detect an oil price threshold of USD27.6/barrel. Moreover, an increase in the price of oil, which exceeds this threshold, will cause a rise in inflation, budget deficit, and unemployment rate. Still, there is no significant evidence of the impact of oil prices on GDP growth.
The global financial crisis, once again, has ignited several intense debates over financial globalization merits, particularly for developing countries. There are probably a number of initial threshold conditions to be attained before substantial benefits may be reaped, and the risks of capital account liberalization, minimized. This article takes into account a series of empirical framework typifying these threshold conditions, estimating essential ones and accordingly proposing a few policy implications. Empirical evidence demonstrates that there exist specific thresholds in such variables with significant effects on the nexus between financial integration and growth, including those as clearly identifiable as financial depth and institutional quality. It is also shown by the findings that Vietnam’s financial development has preliminarily satisfied the necessary conditions for efficient financial integration. In contrast, the institutional quality threshold remains far distant.
With the progress of informatization in Vietnam, the Vietnamese have accepted online shopping, and the research on online shopping behavior of Vietnamese consumers has important theoretical and practical significance. Based on the "four streams" of ecommerce (flow of information, flow of trading, flow of financing and flow of goods), this paper conducts an empirical analysis of Vietnamese consumers' online shopping behavior. we found that education and monthly income have a significant impact on the amount of consumers' online shopping, while flow of information and flow of goods have a significant positive effect on consumers' online shopping frequency.
This article addresses the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices under the impact of inflation. Using TVAR based approach and the variables of inflation, nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), output gap, and interbank rate in addition to monthly data applied to the period of 2000M1–2014M12, we find a non-linear relation in the pass-through to inflation along with the two thresholds of its. Being above or below the thresholds results in different levels of the exchange rate pass-through, which is consistent with previous findings, with unclear/clear evidence found below/above the threshold of 0.3395%/month respectively. In the case of positive shocks of the exchange rate, the inflation is suggested to enormously rise and then return to equilibrium. We also attempt to clarify several distinct features of Vietnam affecting the pass-through and draw a few implications.
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