In light of the renewed challenge to construct effective "Early Warning Systems" for sovereign debt crises, we empirically evaluate the predictive power of econometric models developed so far across developed and emerging country regions. We propose a different specification of the crisis variable that allows for the prediction of new crisis onsets as well as duration, and develop a more powerful dynamic-recursive forecasting technique to generate more accurate out-of-sample warning signals of sovereign debt crises. Our results are shown to be more accurate compared to the ones found in the existing literature.

The paper uses a gravity trade model to examine the impact of corruption on bilateral trade using a data set comprising OECD economies, new EU members and developing nations. Although the level of corruption of both the importing and exporting nations does hinder cross-border transactions, differences between their ethical standards do have a negative impact on trade flows. The model is used to assess the impact on exports and imports of Romania and Bulgaria joining the European Union. Special

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