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ABSTRACT. Approaches to natural resource management are often based on a presumed ability to predict probabilistic responses to management and external drivers such as climate. They also tend to assume that the manager is outside the system being managed. However, where the objectives include long-term sustainability, linked social-ecological systems (SESs) behave as complex adaptive systems, with the managers as integral components of the system. Moreover, uncertainties are large and it may be difficult to reduce them as fast as the system changes. Sustainability involves maintaining the functionality of a system when it is perturbed, or maintaining the elements needed to renew or reorganize if a large perturbation radically alters structure and function. The ability to do this is termed "resilience." This paper presents an evolving approach to analyzing resilience in SESs, as a basis for managing resilience. We propose a framework with four steps, involving close involvement of SES stakeholders. It begins with a stakeholder-led development of a conceptual model of the system, including its historical profile (how it got to be what it is) and preliminary assessments of the drivers of the supply of key ecosystem goods and services.Step 2 deals with identifying the range of unpredictable and uncontrollable drivers, stakeholder visions for the future, and contrasting possible future policies, weaving these three factors into a limited set of future scenarios.Step 3 uses the outputs from steps 1 and 2 to explore the SES for resilience in an iterative way. It generally includes the development of simple models of the system's dynamics for exploring attributes that affect resilience.Step 4 is a stakeholder evaluation of the process and outcomes in terms of policy and management implications. This approach to resilience analysis is illustrated using two stylized examples.

Ecosystem stewardship is an action-oriented framework intended to foster social-ecological sustainability of a rapidly changing planet. Recent developments identify three strategies that make optimal use of current understanding in an environment of inevitable uncertainty and abrupt change: reducing the magnitude of, and exposure and sensitivity to, known stresses; focusing on proactive policies that shape change; and avoiding or escaping unsustainable socialecological traps. All social-ecological systems are vulnerable to recent and projected changes but have sources of adaptive capacity and resilience that can sustain ecosystem services and human well-being through active ecosystem stewardship. A Call for Ecosystem StewardshipHuman actions are having large and accelerating effects on Earth's climate, environment, and ecosystems 1, 2 , thereby degrading many ecosystem services (see glossary) 3 . This unsustainable 2 trajectory demands a dramatic change in human relationships with the environment and lifesupport system of the planet 2,3 . In this paper we address recent developments in thinking about the sustainable use of ecosystems and resources by society in the context of rapid and frequently abrupt change (Box 1).Western resource management paradigms have evolved from exploitation, where sustainability is not an important consideration, to steady-state resource management aimed at maximum or optimum sustainable yield (MSY or OSY, respectively) and efficient production of a single resource such as fish or trees, to ecosystem management to sustain a broader suite of ecosystem services 4 ( Fig. 1). Despite its sustainability goal, management for MSY or OSY tends to over-exploit targeted resources because of overly optimistic assumptions about the capacity to sustain productivity, avoid disturbances, regulate harvesters' behavior, and anticipate extreme economic or environmental events 5 . Ecosystem management seeks to sustain multiple ecosystem services 6 but often uses, as a reference point, historic conditions that are not achievable in a rapidly changing world.Given the challenges of sustainable use of ecosystems during rapid change, we advocate a shift to ecosystem stewardship (Table 1) 7,8 . Its central goal is to sustain the capacity to provide ecosystem services that support human well-being under conditions of uncertainty and change (see glossary). Uncertainty has always characterized social-ecological systems and should therefore not be an impediment to action. Such a paradigm shift entails important tradeoffs, particularly between efficiency and flexibility and between immediate and long-term benefits 9, 10 .Ecosystem stewardship integrates three broadly overlapping sustainability approaches 8,11, 12 (Fig. 2): reducing vulnerability to expected changes [11][12][13] ; fostering resilience to sustain 3 desirable conditions in the face of perturbations and uncertainty 14 ; and transforming from undesirable trajectories when opportunities emerge 15,16 . Adaptive capacity contributes to all three ...

We present a resilience-based approach for assessing sustainability in a sub-catchment of the Murray-Darling Basin in southeast Australia. We define the regional system and identify the main issues, drivers, and potential shocks, then assess both specified and general resilience. The current state of the system is a consequence of changes in resource use. We identify ten known or possible biophysical, economic, and social thresholds operating at different scales, with possible knock-on effects between them. Crossing those thresholds may result in irreversible changes in goods and services generated by the region. Changes in resilience, in general, reflect a pattern of past losses with some signs of recent improvements. Interventions in the system for managing resilience are constrained by current governance, and attention needs to be paid to the roles and capacities of the various institutions. An overview of the current state of the system and likely future trends suggests that transformational change in the region be seriously considered.

Core to the planning-implementation gap in conservation is the failure to achieve the necessary shared vision and collaboration among typically diverse stakeholder groups to translate conservation assessments and plans into sustained on-ground outcomes for conservation. We suggest that a process of describing and sharing mental models-the cognitive frameworks that people use to interpret and understand the world-provides promising and as yet underutilized techniques for conservation planners to improve implementation success. The processes and techniques associated with the mental models concept have been applied in a variety of fields including business and organization science, risk analysis, education, natural resource management, and climate change adaptation. Our review of mental models illustrates that their application can strengthen the success of conservation planning by: (1) contributing to clear and open communication between stakeholders; (2) aiding in overcoming obstacles to incorporating multiple sources of knowledge; (3) enabling shared ownership of a conservation plan; and (4) improving social assessments. Techniques to explicitly communicate mental models can contribute to each phase of a conservation planning process-assessment, planning, management, and review. Conservation planners have much to gain by eliciting and sharing mental models in conservation planning processes.