ObjectiveTo estimate the long-term effect of the changing demography in China on blood supply and demand.MethodsWe developed a predictive model to estimate blood supply and demand during 2017–2036 in mainland China and in 31 province-level regions. Model parameters were obtained from World Population Prospects, China statistical yearbook 2016, China’s report on blood safety and records from a large tertiary hospital. Our main assumptions were stable age-specific per capita blood supply and demand over time.FindingsWe estimated that the change in demographic structure between 2016 (baseline year) and 2036 would result in a 16.0% decrease in blood supply (from 43.2 million units of 200 mL to 36.3 million units) and a 33.1% increase in demand (from 43.2 million units to 57.5 million units). In 2036, there would be an estimated shortage of 21.2 million units. An annual increase in supply between 0.9% and 1.8% is required to maintain a balance in blood supply and demand. This increase is not enough for every region as regional differences will increase, e.g. a blood demand/supply ratio ≥ 1.45 by 2036 is predicted in regions with large populations older than 65 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that increasing donations by 4.0% annually by people aged 18–34 years or decreasing the overall blood discard rate from 5.0% to 2.0% would not offset but help reduce the blood shortage.ConclusionMultidimensional strategies and tailored, coordinated actions are needed to deal with growing pressures on blood services because of China’s ageing population.

Bear bile is a traditional Chinese medicine that has been used for millennia. Several arguments support and oppose the use of bear farming in terms of conservation and nonhuman animal welfare. This study involved designing a questionnaire and surveying a random sample of general citizens and college students in Beijing to elicit their attitudes on bile extraction from living bears. Older people and people with lower education levels used more bear bile medicines. In total, 29.47% (n = 204) of citizens and 23.14% (n = 81) of students surveyed used bear bile medicine since 1990. Students were less willing to use bear bile medicines than citizens (p < .05). The level the respondents agreed with the blue side (against the extraction of bile from living bears; anti for short) was significantly higher than that for the red side (support the extraction of bile from living bears; pro for short; p < .05). Additionally, college students had a more distinct attitude toward the opposing views, which indicates they were more inclined to oppose bile extraction from living bears.

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