COVID-19 has proven to be particularly challenging given the complex pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2. Early data have demonstrated how the host response to this novel coronavirus leads to the proliferation of pro-inflammatory cytokines, massive endothelial damage, and generalized vascular manifestations. While SARS-CoV-2 primarily targets the upper and lower respiratory tract, other organ systems are also affected. SARS-CoV-2 relies on 2 host cell receptors for successful attachment: angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 and transmembrane protease serine 2. Clinicopathologic reports have demonstrated associations between severe COVID-19 and viral coagulopathy, resulting in pulmonary embolism; venous, arterial, and microvascular thrombosis; lung endothelial injury; and associated thrombotic complications leading to acute respiratory distress syndrome. Viral coagulopathy is not novel given similar observations with SARS classic, including the consumption of platelets, generation of thrombin, and increased fibrin degradation product exhibiting overt disseminated intravascular coagulation–like syndrome. The specific mechanism(s) behind the thrombotic complications in COVID-19 patients has yet to be fully understood. Parenteral anticoagulants, such as heparin and low-molecular-weights heparins, are widely used in the management of COVID-19 patients. Beyond the primary (anticoagulant) effects of these agents, they may exhibit antiviral, anti-inflammatory, and cytoprotective effects. Direct oral anticoagulants and antiplatelet agents are also useful in the management of these patients. Tissue plasminogen activator and other fibrinolytic modalities may also be helpful in the overall management. Catheter-directed thrombolysis can be used in patients developing pulmonary embolism. Further investigations are required to understand the molecular and cellular mechanisms involved in the pathogenesis of COVID-19-associated thrombotic complications.

BackgroundInfectious disease forecasting aims to predict characteristics of both seasonal epidemics and future pandemics. Accurate and timely infectious disease forecasts could aid public health responses by informing key preparation and mitigation efforts.Main bodyFor forecasts to be fully integrated into public health decision-making, federal, state, and local officials must understand how forecasts were made, how to interpret forecasts, and how well the forecasts have performed in the past. Since the 2013–14 influenza season, the Influenza Division at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted collaborative challenges to forecast the timing, intensity, and short-term trajectory of influenza-like illness in the United States. Additional efforts to advance forecasting science have included influenza initiatives focused on state-level and hospitalization forecasts, as well as other infectious diseases. Using CDC influenza forecasting challenges as an example, this paper provides an overview of infectious disease forecasting; applications of forecasting to public health; and current work to develop best practices for forecast methodology, applications, and communication.ConclusionsThese efforts, along with other infectious disease forecasting initiatives, can foster the continued advancement of forecasting science.

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