Tohoku Earthquake on March 11, 2011 occurred at the plate boundary between the Pacific and North America plates along the Japan Trench, generating the destructive tsunami. Because it has been thought that these inter plate earthquakes happen repeatedly at similar magnitude and location in an almost fixed time interval, the occurrence of Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami which exceeds the maximum magnitude of historical earthquake tsunami records for the past hundreds of years could not be predicted. Which means that, in the probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the future prediction, it is necessary to apply a different concept from existing scenario tsunami assessment based on the maximum magnitude of historical earthquake tsunami. As a new modeling method for scenario tsunami, we propose a characterized tsunami source model which indicates setting method of tsunami source area and slip distribution by inter plate earthquake. Moreover, uncertainty (β) of tsunami simulation using the characterized model is analyzed, and improvement of the accuracy for modeling concerning the characteristic on tsunami source or the run-up characteristic shows that β can be reduced rather than past knowledge.
ABSTRACT:The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake which exceeds the maximum magnitude of historical earthquake records could not be predicted. Which means, in the probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the future prediction, it is necessary to apply a different concept from the existing scenario tsunami assessment based on the maximum magnitude of historical earthquake tsunami. As a new modeling method for scenario tsunami, we propose a characterized tsunami source model which indicates setting method of the area of tsunami source and slip distribution by the inter-plate earthquake.
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