Aim. To analyze and predict the climate change impact on the crop structure, yield and gross collections of grain crops in short-term (2025), mid-term (2050) and long-term perspective. Methods. Analysis of long-term series of climatic parameters based on satellite data, climatic modeling, statistical analysis of crop yield and gross collection of grain crops. Results. The positive effect of historical and current climate change on grain crop yields in Ukraine is demonstrated. It is predicted that the preservation of this pattern and the implementation of an integrated system of measures for adapting agroecosystems to warming will promote further increase in the grain crop yield and thus its gross collection. Conclusions. According to the analysis of satellite data and climatic models, further climate warming is predicted and its positive impact on grain crop productivity is forecasted. In case of developing and implementing the measures to adapt agroecosystems to climate change, the grain yield in Ukraine may increase by 25 % in 2025 compared with the current period (2015) and by 29–30 % in 2050; the gross collection of grain crops will reach 75.0 million tons (in 2025) and 79.0–80.0 million tons (in 2050). On condition of effi cient material and technical, scientifi c and informational support, further development of technical means, the reproduction of soil fertility and the improvement of irrigation technologies in the long-term perspective (by 2100), the gross grain collection may reach 92–95 million tons.

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Satellite data are a relevant part of information, required for sustainable environmental management, assessment of the impact of economic activity of ecosystems, determination of risks, related to global climate changes, desertifi cation processes, loss of landscape and biotic diversity. Aim. To substantiate the reasonability and prove the effi ciency of using satellite data in the agroecologic monitoring system regarding the impact of climate changes on vegetation, processes of soil erosion degradation, and assessment of landscape diversity. Methods. The study was conducted in the territory of Ukraine. It involved the application of SWOT and Gap-analysis methodology, materials of NOAA satellite observa- tions, Sentinel, different spatial resolution, methodological and regulatory provision of the Institute of Agroecology and Environmental Economics of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences regarding satellite monitoring of the structure of agrolandscapes, norms of establishing a network of testing agrarian grounds, list of vegetation state indicators, in par- ticular, “Remote sensing of the Earth from space. Land data about controlling the condition of plantings and performance of agricultural crops. General requirements: DSTU 7307:2013”, “Remote sensing of the Earth from space. Ground in- spection of plantings. Classifi er of objects and functions: SUC 01.1-37-907:2011”, “Methodological recommendations on establishing the network of testing agrarian grounds in the system of monitoring of plantings using the materials of cosmic information”. The investigation on the impact of climate changes on vegetation state was conducted on the territory of three natural-climatic zones which were geographically represented by Chernihiv, Poltava and Zaporizhzhia regions re- spectively. The determination of the threat of erosion degradation of arable lands and landscape diversity was performed on the territory of two administrative districts with high level of ploughness of agrolandscapes, intense agrarian produc- tion and manifestation of erosion degradation of lands. Results. Inadequacy of the traditional system of agroecological monitoring was determined. It was proven that it was reasonable to have comprehensive application of satellite data regarding climate warming within the natural climatic zones and its impact on vegetation according to the normalized dif- ference vegetation index (NDVI), erosion degradation of soils and landscape diversity. According to satellite data of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the correlation analysis was performed on the connection between the dynamics of the sum of effective temperatures and the sum of NDVI values for the vegetation period. There was positive impact of climate warming on vegetation state according to NDVI index in the zone of Polissia and Forest- Steppe. The correlation coeffi cients were R = 0.64 and R = 0.77 respectively. In the Steppe zone the correlation coeffi cient dropped down to R = 0.35 which demonstrated the elevated risk of droughts. Conclusions. Satellite data of Sentinel-1 were used to determine critical zones of erosion degradation of arable lands, requiring preservation and their inclusion to the natural fi elds, which had a positive impact on the optimization of agrolandscape diversity.

Мета публікації полягає в аналізі та оцінюванні впливу змін клімату на продуктивність агроекосистем та ризиків щодо урожайності зернових культур. Методика досліджень -використання супутникової інформації, кліматичних моделей, даних довгострокових агротехнічних дослідів та статистичної інформації. Результати: представлено оцінку закономірності змін клімату, їх впливу на розвиток рослинності, урожайності зернових культур, а також прогноз їх валових зборів на ближню й віддалену перспективу з використанням супутникових даних NOAA. Розглянуто ризики виникнення деградаційних процесів та адаптаційні заходи з пом'якшення їх дії на продуктивність агроекосистем. Запропоновано механізм запровадження ґрунто-водоохоронної організації території землекористування та виконання моніторингу впливу змін клімату на продуктивність агроекосистем з використанням супутникових даних. O.H. Tarariko, T.V. Ilienko, T.L. Kuchma Institute of Agroecology and Environmental Managing of National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE HANGE ON PRODUCTIVITY AND GROSS HARVEST OF GRAIN CROPS: ANALYSIS AND FORECASTThe aim of the publication is to analyze and evaluate the impact of climate change on productivity of agro-ecosystems and risks to crop yield. Research methodology -the use of satellite information, climate models, long-term agro technologic experiments data and statistical information. Results: assessment of the climate change patterns, their impact on the vegetation development, grain crops productivity as well as forecast of their gross harvest in the near and distant future with the use of satellite data NOAA has been presented. Risks of degradation processes and adaptive measures to mitigate their impact on productivity of agro-ecosystems have been reviewed. Mechanism of the area soil-water protection organization of the land use has been introduced as well as monitoring implementation of climate change impact on the of agro-ecosystems productivity using satellite data has been proposed.

Мета публікації полягає в обґрунтуванні формування збалансованих систем землекористування, моніторингу та охорони ґрунтів від ерозійної деградації в умовах інтенсифікації аграрного виробництва та посилення зливового характеру опадів у процесі змін клімату. Для вирішення проблеми обґрунтовано необхідність удосконалення структури державного управління земельними ресурсами сільськогосподарського призначення з метою їх раціонального використання та охорони від деградації й опустелювання. деградація; опустелювання; зміни клімату; протиерозійні заходи; агроландшафт; агроекосистеми; контурно-меліоративна організація територій; землекористування. Ключові слова: