Aim. To analyze and predict the climate change impact on the crop structure, yield and gross collections of grain crops in short-term (2025), mid-term (2050) and long-term perspective. Methods. Analysis of long-term series of climatic parameters based on satellite data, climatic modeling, statistical analysis of crop yield and gross collection of grain crops. Results. The positive effect of historical and current climate change on grain crop yields in Ukraine is demonstrated. It is predicted that the preservation of this pattern and the implementation of an integrated system of measures for adapting agroecosystems to warming will promote further increase in the grain crop yield and thus its gross collection. Conclusions. According to the analysis of satellite data and climatic models, further climate warming is predicted and its positive impact on grain crop productivity is forecasted. In case of developing and implementing the measures to adapt agroecosystems to climate change, the grain yield in Ukraine may increase by 25 % in 2025 compared with the current period (2015) and by 29–30 % in 2050; the gross collection of grain crops will reach 75.0 million tons (in 2025) and 79.0–80.0 million tons (in 2050). On condition of effi cient material and technical, scientifi c and informational support, further development of technical means, the reproduction of soil fertility and the improvement of irrigation technologies in the long-term perspective (by 2100), the gross grain collection may reach 92–95 million tons.

Satellite data are a relevant part of information, required for sustainable environmental management, assessment of the impact of economic activity of ecosystems, determination of risks, related to global climate changes, desertifi cation processes, loss of landscape and biotic diversity. Aim. To substantiate the reasonability and prove the effi ciency of using satellite data in the agroecologic monitoring system regarding the impact of climate changes on vegetation, processes of soil erosion degradation, and assessment of landscape diversity. Methods. The study was conducted in the territory of Ukraine. It involved the application of SWOT and Gap-analysis methodology, materials of NOAA satellite observa- tions, Sentinel, different spatial resolution, methodological and regulatory provision of the Institute of Agroecology and Environmental Economics of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences regarding satellite monitoring of the structure of agrolandscapes, norms of establishing a network of testing agrarian grounds, list of vegetation state indicators, in par- ticular, “Remote sensing of the Earth from space. Land data about controlling the condition of plantings and performance of agricultural crops. General requirements: DSTU 7307:2013”, “Remote sensing of the Earth from space. Ground in- spection of plantings. Classifi er of objects and functions: SUC 01.1-37-907:2011”, “Methodological recommendations on establishing the network of testing agrarian grounds in the system of monitoring of plantings using the materials of cosmic information”. The investigation on the impact of climate changes on vegetation state was conducted on the territory of three natural-climatic zones which were geographically represented by Chernihiv, Poltava and Zaporizhzhia regions re- spectively. The determination of the threat of erosion degradation of arable lands and landscape diversity was performed on the territory of two administrative districts with high level of ploughness of agrolandscapes, intense agrarian produc- tion and manifestation of erosion degradation of lands. Results. Inadequacy of the traditional system of agroecological monitoring was determined. It was proven that it was reasonable to have comprehensive application of satellite data regarding climate warming within the natural climatic zones and its impact on vegetation according to the normalized dif- ference vegetation index (NDVI), erosion degradation of soils and landscape diversity. According to satellite data of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the correlation analysis was performed on the connection between the dynamics of the sum of effective temperatures and the sum of NDVI values for the vegetation period. There was positive impact of climate warming on vegetation state according to NDVI index in the zone of Polissia and Forest- Steppe. The correlation coeffi cients were R = 0.64 and R = 0.77 respectively. In the Steppe zone the correlation coeffi cient dropped down to R = 0.35 which demonstrated the elevated risk of droughts. Conclusions. Satellite data of Sentinel-1 were used to determine critical zones of erosion degradation of arable lands, requiring preservation and their inclusion to the natural fi elds, which had a positive impact on the optimization of agrolandscape diversity.

The description of the typical structure of agricultural landscapes of Ukraine and the most common degradation processes are given. Water and wind erosion are considered as one of the largest contributors to soil degradation in Ukraine, accompanied by declining soil fertility, moisture loss to surface runoff, air and surface water pollution, and degradation of small rivers. The sown areas of main crops for 1990–2020 are analysed per administrative oblast according to the State Statistical Service of Ukraine. A global long-term satellite remote sensing land surface temperature dataset (NOAA AVHRR) was used to analyse the dynamics of the average sum of effective temperatures for the vegetation season in 1982–2019. Sentinel-5P satellite data was used to analyse the spread and exposure of a large-scale dust storm in Polissya region in April 2020. As a result of climate change and economic factors, the area under corn and sunflower has been significantly increased. Due to the increased frequency of stormy rains and strong wind under climate change, the conditions for intensification of water and wind erosion in agricultural landscapes has been created. The local manifestation of wind erosion is typical for Polissya, mainly on overdried peat bogs and cohesive-sandy soils. But in the spring of 2020 a large-scale dust storm was observed for the first time on the territory of Ukrainian and Belarusian Polissya on the area of about 3.5 million hectares.The growing risk of soil erosion due to the climate change and current agricultural practices requires the improvement not only of the state land management system, but also the agri-environmental monitoring system, scientific methodical and information-advisory support of regional governments, landowners and land users. In order to implement state policy and coordinate the work on the rational use and protection of soils, combating their desertification and degradation, as well as adaptation of land use systems to climate change, it is proposed to establish the governing body «Monitoring, land management and soil protection» on the basis of existing specialized units of central and regional governments in the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine.

The article presents the historical aspects of developing remote agroecological monitoring. It is shown that in the process of improving satellite sensors, opening access to foreign satellite data, the possibilities and effectiveness of using the results of remote sensing in scientific and environmental protection activities, in the production of safe agricultural products have expanded. The stages of forming scientific and technical program of satellite agro-ecological monitoring «Agrokosmos», the main fundamentals, tasks and results of this research direction are analyzed. The effectiveness of satellite information for determining the structure of agrolandscapes and land use systems, climate change, its impact on the condition of crops and their moisture supply, productivity of grain crops is shown. Methodical approaches to identifying and mapping manifestations of desertification processes, erosive degradation of agricultural land and associated negative trends are considered. It is noted that modern satellite information is an important tool not only for improving the agroecological monitoring system, but also for developing and implementing measures to achieve a neutral level of soil degradation, prevent the development of desertification processes, and adapt to climate change. It has been proven that the satellite agroecological monitoring system needs improvement in terms of more detailed classification of individual elements of agrolandscapes, as well as improvement of algorithms and image processing methods to expand the possibilities of timely using these data to provide management recommendations and prompt adjustment of agricultural technologies. The main directions of further development of the «Agrokosmos» program are presented. An important issue remains the strengthening of the coordination of research works with the scientific institutions of the National Academy of Sciences, the State Space Agency, the development of cooperation with foreign partners within the framework of international projects. The urgent task of improving the information potential of the use of Earth remote sensing data is the creation of a national network of sub-satellite terrestrial agricultural test sites. The effective use of satellite data in management, production and scientific activities in agriculture requires creating an interdepartmental informative and analytical center «Agrokosmos» within the framework of the National Academy of Sciences and the Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food.

Aim. To determine the tendencies in the changes in air temperature and their influence on the productivity of crops during the vegetative cycle periods, especially in soil-climatic zones of Ukraine for the 1981–2010 climate normals period. Methods. The analytical and synthetic, statistical, climatic methods, simulation (model of V.P. Dmitrenko “Weather-yield” (Dmitrenko VP et al, 2017, 2010), used to forecast the productivity of grains in the Ukrainian Hy- drometeorological Center since 1970), abstract-logical method. Results. The rising air temperatures were determined throughout the whole vegetative period of growing corn and spring barley over the period of 1981–2010. It was found that this rise in different phases of crop development was of different magnitude and relevance in all regions and soil-climatic zones of Ukraine. The reliable changes in the surface air temperature were noted in the phases of the third leaf, panicle emergence, and blossoming of corn in Polissia, Forest-Steppe, and especially Steppe (0.7– 0.8 °С/10 years, 0.8–0.9 °С/10 years and 0.9–1.1 °С/10 years, respectively). During the pre-sowing period, the periods of corn sowing and seedlings, the velocity of changes was twice lower in the whole territory of the country, and during the pe- riods of milky ripeness and middle dough – in the eastern Forest-Steppe and dry Steppe, amounting to 0.4–0.5 °С/10 years. A considerable rise in the temperature during the period of the third leaf, panicle emergence, and blossoming promoted the decrease in the influence of temperature during these phases of crop development, especially in the Steppe (up to 10–15 % in 10 years). Only the rise in the temperature during the pre-sowing period promoted the 3–6 % increase in the whole terri- tory of the country, and during the periods of milky ripeness and middle dough of corn – up to 8 % in 10 years in the Forest- Steppe and Steppe. Generally, the thermal conditions for corn cultivation deteriorated considerably but remained favorable in Polissia, satisfactory – in the Forest-Steppe and northern Steppe, and unsatisfactory – in the south, in the dry Steppe. The most intense changes in the air temperature during the vegetation period of spring barley were noted in the phase of milky ripeness and middle dough in all soil-climatic zones, amounting to 0.8–1.1 °С/10 years. During the sowing period, the phases of the third leaf, stem elongation, and ear formation, they were 0.6–0.7 °С/10 years, and during the pre-sowing period – 0.3– 0.4 °С/10 years. During the spring barley tillering phase, the change in the air temperature was insignificant in the whole territory of the country. A considerable increase in the air temperature was unfavorable for crop cultivation in all the soil- climatic zones of Ukraine during the vegetative cycle of spring barley, especially during the phases of milky ripeness and middle dough, and promoted the decrease in its productivity in Polissia, Forest-Steppe, and Steppe by 5, 7.5 and 10 % in 10 years, respectively. In general, the increase in the air temperature conditioned the deterioration in thermal conditions of cultivating spring barley but they remained favorable in Polissia and Forest-Steppe, and favorable or satisfactory in the Steppe during the pre-sowing period and the vegetative cycle.