A long-term (1907±98) virtual population analysis (VPA) was made for Norwegian spring-spawning herring (NSSH), which is a huge pelagic fish stock in the north-east Atlantic. It shows that this herring stock has had large fluctuations during the last century; these fluctuations have mainly been determined by variations in the temperature of the inflowing water masses to the region. The spawning stock biomass (SSB) increased from a rather low level in the early years of this century and reached a high level of around 14 million tons by 1930. The spawning stock biomass then decreased to a level of around 10 million tons by 1940, but increased again to a record high level of 16 million tons by 1945. The stock then started to decrease and during the next 20-year period fell to a level of less than 50 000 tons by the late 1960s. Through the 1970s and 1980s, the stock slowly recovered and after the recruitment of strong year classes in 1983 and 1990±1992 the stock recovered to a spawning stock biomass of about 10 million tons. The long-term fluctuation in spawning stock biomass is caused by variations in the survival of recruits. It is found that the long-term changes in spawning stock abundance are highly correlated with the long-term variations in the mean annual temperature of the inflowing Atlantic water masses (through the Kola section) into the north-east Atlantic region. The recruitment is positively correlated with the average temperature in the Kola section in the winter months, January±April, which indicates that environmental factors govern the large-scale fluctuations in production for this herring stock. Stock size and recruitment in relation to climate 237 Result 239 THE Development of the spawning stock biomass 239 THE Effect of the fishery and fishing mortality 239Recruitment levels and recruitment per unit of spawning stock biomass (recruitment success) 250 Relationships with the ocean temperature 250Trends in spawning stock biomass and mean annual temperature in the Kola section 250Recruitment and climate 250

A long-term (1907±98) virtual population analysis (VPA) was made for Norwegian spring-spawning herring (NSSH), which is a huge pelagic fish stock in the north-east Atlantic. It shows that this herring stock has had large fluctuations during the last century; these fluctuations have mainly been determined by variations in the temperature of the inflowing water masses to the region. The spawning stock biomass (SSB) increased from a rather low level in the early years of this century and reached a high level of around 14 million tons by 1930. The spawning stock biomass then decreased to a level of around 10 million tons by 1940, but increased again to a record high level of 16 million tons by 1945. The stock then started to decrease and during the next 20-year period fell to a level of less than 50 000 tons by the late 1960s. Through the 1970s and 1980s, the stock slowly recovered and after the recruitment of strong year classes in 1983 and 1990±1992 the stock recovered to a spawning stock biomass of about 10 million tons. The long-term fluctuation in spawning stock biomass is caused by variations in the survival of recruits. It is found that the long-term changes in spawning stock abundance are highly correlated with the long-term variations in the mean annual temperature of the inflowing Atlantic water masses (through the Kola section) into the north-east Atlantic region. The recruitment is positively correlated with the average temperature in the Kola section in the winter months, January±April, which indicates that environmental factors govern the large-scale fluctuations in production for this herring stock. Stock size and recruitment in relation to climate 237 Result 239 THE Development of the spawning stock biomass 239 THE Effect of the fishery and fishing mortality 239 Recruitment levels and recruitment per unit of spawning stock biomass (recruitment success) 250 Relationships with the ocean temperature 250 Trends in spawning stock biomass and mean annual temperature in the Kola section 250 Recruitment and climate 250 Discussion 251 THE Biological data 251 THE Method 252 THE Results of the virtual population analysis 253 THE Climatic index 253 THE Correlation of spawning stock biomass and recruitment with temperature 253 Concluding remarks 254References 254

In 1907, the Bergen Institute of Marine Research started regular sampling of scales and lengths from landings of mature Norwegian spring-spawning herring. The actual age of each fish when caught was recorded, and from the early 1920s also the age at which it spawned for the first time. The present analyses concern biological samples secured during the fishing seasons 1940–1964. Herring in this stock do not all reach maturity at the same age. A small proportion of any one year class matures at 3 years. The majority matures from the age of 4–7 years, and a small proportion of some year classes at 8 and even 9 years of age. Subsequent age composition and growth of each maturation cohort were followed throughout mature life after spawning for the first time. The maximum age was found to increase with age at maturation, rising to an asymptote of about 22 years. The von Bertalanffy parameter L∞ shows an increasing trend with age at maturation, while K decreases. There is no strict length threshold at maturation and the curve joining the length at which each maturation cohort reaches maturity is less steep than the growth curve itself over the range of maturation ages. The data suggest that fish in this stock spawn, on average, eight times during a period of their life history in which the mortality rate is independent of age. After these eight spawnings, at an age referred to in this paper as the hinge age, the mortality rate increases sharply. Thus, the adult life is divided into two phases, called here pre-senescent and senescent. The total mortality rates in the pre-senescent phase are relatively stable for all maturation cohorts 3–9, but there is some evidence of a trend towards higher mortality rates during the senescent phase for the youngest maturing fish. This trend is caused mainly by a reduced natural mortality in the fish that mature when older. These findings have interesting demographic implications. Additional mortality due to fishing will change the relative contribution of young and old maturation cohorts in the senescent phase, thus making it appear that natural mortality is dependent on the intensity of fishing. Consequently, for stock assessment, analysis on a cohort basis seems advisable.