Species range displacements owing to shifts in temporal associations between trophic levels are expected consequences of climate warming. Climate-induced range expansions have been shown for two irruptive forest defoliators, the geometrids Operophtera brumata and Epirrita autumnata, causing more extensive forest damage in sub-Arctic Fennoscandia. Here, we document a rapid northwards expansion of a novel irruptive geometrid, Agriopis aurantiaria, into the same region, with the aim of providing insights into mechanisms underlying the recent geometrid range expansions and subsequent forest damage. Based on regional scale data on occurrences and a quantitative monitoring of population densities along the invasion front, we show that, since the first records of larval specimens in the region in 1997-1998, the species has spread northwards to approximately 701N, and caused severe defoliation locally during [2004][2005][2006]. Through targeted studies of larval phenology of A. aurantiaria and O. brumata, as well as spring phenology of birch, along meso-scale climatic gradients, we show that A. aurantiaria displays a similar dynamics and development as O. brumata, albeit with a consistent phenological lag of 0.75-1 instar. Experiments of the temperature requirements for egg hatching and for budburst in birch showed that this phenological lag is caused by delayed egg hatching in A. aurantiaria relative to O. brumata. A. aurantiaria had a higher development threshold (LDT A.a. 5 4.71 1C, LDT O.b. 5 1.41 1C), and hatched later and in less synchrony with budburst than O. brumata at the lower end of the studied temperature range. We can conclude that recent warmer springs have provided phenological match between A. aurantiaria and sub-Arctic birch which may intensify the cumulative impact of geometrid outbreaks on this forest ecosystem. Higher spring temperatures will increase spring phenological synchrony between A. aurantiaria and its host, which suggests that a further expansion of the outbreak range of A. aurantiaria can be expected.

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Spatial synchrony in population dynamics can be caused by dispersal or spatially correlated variation in environmental factors like weather (Moran effect). Distinguishing between these mechanisms is challenging for natural populations, and the study of dispersal‐induced synchrony in particular has been dominated by theoretical modelling and laboratory experiments. The goal of the present study was to evaluate the evidence for dispersal as a cause of meso‐scale (distances of tens of kilometres) spatial synchrony in natural populations of the two cyclic geometrid moths Epirrita autumnata and Operophtera brumata in sub‐arctic mountain birch forest in northern Norway. To infer the role of dispersal in geometrid synchrony, we applied three complementary approaches, namely estimating the effect of design‐based dispersal barriers (open sea) on synchrony, comparing the strength of synchrony between E. autumnata (winged adults) and the less dispersive O. brumata (wingless adult females), and relating the directionality (anisotropy) of synchrony to the predominant wind directions during spring, when geometrid larvae engage in windborne dispersal (ballooning). The estimated effect of dispersal barriers on synchrony was almost three times stronger for the less dispersive O. brumata than E. autumnata. Inter‐site synchrony was also weakest for O. brumata at all spatial lags. Both observations argue for adult dispersal as an important synchronizing mechanism at the spatial scales considered. Further, synchrony in both moth species showed distinct anisotropy and was most spatially extensive parallel to the east–west axis, coinciding closely to the overall dominant wind direction. This argues for a synchronizing effect of windborne larval dispersal. Congruent with most extensive dispersal along the east–west axis, E. autumnata also showed evidence for a travelling wave moving southwards at a speed of 50–80 km/year. Our results suggest that dispersal processes can leave clear signatures in both the strength and directionality of synchrony in field populations, and highlight wind‐driven dispersal as promising avenue for further research on spatial synchrony in natural insect populations.

A recent paper claims the existence of one of the most large‐scale travelling waves ever recorded for any animal population. Here we address why conceptual and methodological pitfalls may have served to exaggerate or even impose the spatial patterns reported. Photo credit: Jane U. Jepsen