Ukraine, during the first half of the twentieth century, underwent a series of man‐made demographic catastrophes—World War I, the Bolshevik Revolution, the 1932/33 famine linked to land collectivization, the massive deportations and executions of Stalin's Great Terror, and World War II. This article assembles estimates of the demographic impact of these deadly events. In their absence, it is estimated that Ukraine's hypothetical population would have been 87 million on the eve of independence in 1991, instead of its actual 52 million. Pre‐independence demographic losses were episodic and driven by external forces. By contrast, since independence in 1991, Ukraine has experienced a sustained demographic crisis of its own making. Ukraine's population declined from 52 million in 1990 to 45 million by 2013. Fertility, while it has recovered from its lowest point, remains at a TFR of about 1.5—far below replacement. Emigration, although the greatest hemorrhage of young people in the 1990s is over, is still of concern. The loss of Crimea and the unsettled state of affairs in Southeastern Ukraine give further cause for concern.
Здійснено кількісну оцінку гіпотетичних демографічних втрат населення України від соціальних катастроф ХХ століття та їх впливу на загальну чисельність населення станом на початок 2013 року. Оцінку зроблено на базі запропонованого методологічного підходу, що ґрунтується на використанні реконструйованих демографічних рядів. Ключові слова: соціальна катастрофа, гіпотетичні демографічні втрати.Вступ. Чисельність населення та рівень економічного розвитку -два чинники які визначають місце держави (спільнот) у світовій системі координат упрожовж всієї історії розвитку людства. Протягом тисячоліть чисельність цікавила правителів з двох основних причин: як платників податків (мита) та як джерело формування війська. Навіть тепер, незважаючи на рівень економічного та технологічного розвитку, чисельність населення багато у чому визначає роль тієї чи іншої держави на світовій арені.Чисельність населення кожної країни формується під впливом таких основних чинників:• природного перебігу процесів народжуваності та смертності;• міграційних процесів;• природних катаклізмів;• техногенних катастроф;• соціальних катастроф. Всі ці чинники становлять значний інтерес для аналізу процесу формування чисельності населення. Перші два найбільш і постійно досліджують демографи через наявність відповідної надійної інформаційної бази, особливо в останні п'ятдесят років. За нинішніх умов визначення втрат від природних катаклізмів та техногенних катастроф не є занадто складним завданням. Останній чинник -соціальні катастро-
Using various administrative and statistical electronic registers when carrying out population or housing censuses is becoming the increasingly applicable technology for obtaining statistical and demographic information required for taking sound and timely solutions at central government, region and territorial community level. This issue has been in the increasingly stronger focus of international organizations (such as UN Population Fund, UN Economic Commission for Europe, Eurostat), statistical offices of most advanced countries and individual researchers. But the available methodological documents and publications, especially ones of national researchers, give grounds for the conclusion that this issue needs in-depth studies for the implementation in the statistical practice. The article’s objective is to sum up international experiences in using electronic register systems for population and housing censuses in European countries, for their due accounting in Ukrainian realities. The EU legislation is given, recommendations of international organizations on carrying out a census on register basis are analyzed, with emphasis made on the need to introduce unique identifiers for authentification of units and linking of registers. Experiences of using register systems for census purposes are studied and summarized by investigating the cases of two European countries: Finland and Estonia. It is stressed that Estonia that started to actively use registers for public and government needs only at the beginning of this millennium is able to quickly catch up with Finland carrying out census on register basis over several decades. Experiences of developed countries can be useful for Ukrainian statisticians when organizing next population censuses. The forthcoming census will not yet be based on register information, but if a register system is designed, a sound demographic register and a register of addresses (buildings and housings) in particular, and a methodologically grounded plan for gradual implementation of registers for obtaining necessary information about the population is elaborated, this objective will be feasible.
Electronic registry systems, established in many European countries, have long proven their eff ectiveness in various areas of the functioning of the state and separate fi rms and in improving the interaction of the population with government and private organizations. Population registers have a special place in the systems of registers. Th ey provide comprehensive and complete personal information, while saving time and eff ort in solving urgent problems, requests and requirements related to health, education, property, employment, pensions, social assistance, etc. Population registers have also proven their eff ectiveness in recent rounds of population and housing censuses. Northern European countries are pioneers in the creation and use of population register systems. Th e relevance of the article for Ukraine is due to: the active development of various registers, which, however, interact poorly with each other and do not constitute a holistic system; the need to take into account the experience of advanced countries in creating a full-fl edged system of registers. Th e purpose of the article is to summarize the experience of northern European countries in the creation and operation of register systems and to determine the role of the central population register as one of the basic registers. Th e novelty of the article lies in a generalized and comparative analysis of the register systems of the Nordic countries, a study of the role of the central population register and other basic and specialized registers as providers of information about the population. Research methods: systems analysis, scientifi c generalization, comparative analysis, methods of research of complex systems. Th e article investigates the general aspects of the creation and use of population registers in Northern Europe. A characteristic feature of northern European countries, in contrast to Ukraine, is the systematic in creation of separate registers, when a certain administrative register immediately determines the place in the general system and the relationship with other, primarily basic, registers. Th e example of two of the most advanced countries in this issue - Denmark and Norway — analyzes the measures to create systems of personal identifi cation numbers and the practice of using these numbers in registry systems. Examples of subsystems of health and education registers, as well as some other registers containing personalized information, are given. Based on the experience of northern European countries, proposals are formulated to create a real functioning system of registers in Ukraine.
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