Estimate of Hypothetical Population Losses in Ukraine During 1897–2012

Gladun, Oleksandr

doi:10.15407/dse2013.02.147

Cited by 3 publications

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“…Дослідженню процесу формування демографічного потенціалу в різних країнах на різних етапах існування людства, а також аналізу ролі демографічних і структурних чинників присвячено чимало робіт іноземних і вітчизняних вчених, зокрема: Гладун О. М. [1], Курило І. О. [2], Лібанова Е. М.…”

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Multivariate Statistical Estimation of the Effect of Birth Rate on the Formation of the Country’s Demographic Potential

Honchar

Yashchenko

2019

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Introduction. The population was, is and will be the main component of any state. The study of the characteristics of population distribution, the number of labour resources, gender and age structure are the extremely important task. The population forms the demographic potential. Without this potential, it is impossible to develop any of the countries or the world economy as a whole. Demographic potential is the driving force of the development of the country's priorities. It is the essential need to study the problems of demographic processes, which now have a significant impact on the demographic development of the country. It is necessary to develop appropriate strategies, measures and mechanisms that will mitigate the effects of the demographic crisis. Purpose. The article aims to assess the demographic potential taking into account the gender and age structure of the Ukrainian population, as well as to identify the main opportunities of the population and assess its status. Method (methodology). To achieve this goal the methods of statistical analysis have been used. They are the method of groupings, method of relative variables, method of average variables, simulation modelling method, and index method. Results. The complex estimation of effects of the influence of demographic factors of the birth rate on the formation of demographic potential with the use of multi-factor index models has been given. The sex and age pyramids of the population of Ukraine have been constructed in the context of urban and rural settlements and in general, as well as a multifactorial index model for assessing the influence of factors on the change in the birth rate of Ukraine's population.

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Section: вступunclassified

Multivariate Statistical Estimation of the Effect of Birth Rate on the Formation of the Country’s Demographic Potential

Honchar

Yashchenko

2019

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Demographic Trends in Ukraine: Past, Present, and Future

Romaniuk

Gladun

2015

Population & Development Rev

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Ukraine, during the first half of the twentieth century, underwent a series of man‐made demographic catastrophes—World War I, the Bolshevik Revolution, the 1932/33 famine linked to land collectivization, the massive deportations and executions of Stalin's Great Terror, and World War II. This article assembles estimates of the demographic impact of these deadly events. In their absence, it is estimated that Ukraine's hypothetical population would have been 87 million on the eve of independence in 1991, instead of its actual 52 million. Pre‐independence demographic losses were episodic and driven by external forces. By contrast, since independence in 1991, Ukraine has experienced a sustained demographic crisis of its own making. Ukraine's population declined from 52 million in 1990 to 45 million by 2013. Fertility, while it has recovered from its lowest point, remains at a TFR of about 1.5—far below replacement. Emigration, although the greatest hemorrhage of young people in the 1990s is over, is still of concern. The loss of Crimea and the unsettled state of affairs in Southeastern Ukraine give further cause for concern.

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