Анотація. У статті наведено результати статистичного аналізу активності тематичного контенту в мережі Інтернет на сегменті реальних експериментальних даних інформаційних повідомлень. Проведений аналіз довів можливість розгляду частоти появи тематичного контенту, як монотонного міандрового процесу з адитивною випадковою складовою Результати аналізу забезпечили визначення виду залежності частоти появи тематичного контенту від часу, закону розподілу випадкової складової та отримати його статистичні характеристики. Отримані результати доцільно застосовувати на етапі прогнозування розвитку інформаційних загроз. Результати статистичного аналізу показали, що частота активності тематичного контенту в мережі Інтернет має нелінійний характер, є випадковим стаціонарним процесом з явно вираженим зростаючим або спадаючим міандровим трендом.Ключові слова: контент; мережа Інтернет; статистичний аналіз; прогнозування; закон розподілу. Abstract.The article presents the results of the statistical analysis of the thematic content of the Internet in the segment of real experimental data of information messages. The analysis proved the possibility of considering the frequency of appearance of thematic content as a monotone meander process with an additive random component. The results of the analysis provided the definition of the type of dependence of the frequency of thematic content occurrence from time, the law of the distribution and of the random component, and obtain its statistical characteristics. The obtained results should be used at the stage of forecasting the development of information threats. The results of the statistical analysis showed that the thematic content frequency on the Internet is nonlinear, is a random stationary process with a clearly pronounced rising or declining meander trend.

According to art. 8 the Act of Ukraine “On State secrets” includes information on defence, the economy, science and technology, foreign relations, state security and law enforcement. The inclusion of information in the above-mentioned are as realizes only the necessary conditions for classifying such information as secret. The final decision on restricting access to information shall be taken on the basis of an assessment of the level of damage that may be caused to the national security of Ukraine in the event of the disclosure of information, and the appropriateness of such a decision on the part of the State expert on secrecy. In accordance with the requirements of the laws and regulations, the conditions for classifying information as a State secret are complex and are determined on the basis of the criteria for possible damage to the national security of Ukraine as a result of the disclosure of such information, and the criteria for secrecy. When using the expert assessment method, the expert determines the criteria by which the information is evaluated to determine the level of damage to Ukraine’s national security. These criteria are based on the expert’s subjective judgement, that is, the determination of qualitative estimates of information. On the basis of the above, expert methods are based solely on the assessments made by experts on the object of assessment, which they have thoroughly examined. In such a case, the way information is evaluated remains clearly uncertain and not sufficiently quantified. Quantitative assessments of the information make it possible to objectively assess the level of harm to Ukraine’s national security and to minimize the level of subjectivity during this process. The results of this work can be implemented in the form of a specialized software module to determine the level of competence of the person participating in the information assessment procedure. So, efficient and high-quality processing of expert data to a large extent determines the correctness and correctness of the information analysis.

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