This paper presents the authors’ algorithm for estimating the conditions affecting population migration activity in the Eastern European region (on the example of Ukraine), which includes selection of indicators, determination of indicators’ weights in a group, calculation of weighted multidimensional values by each group, determination of the weights of indicators’ groups in the integral index, estimation of the calculation reliability, construction of the integral index and its interpretation. The concept of the conditions affecting migration activity is regarded as a set of factors distributed in five groups (demographic stability and public health status, education coverage, labour market and employment conditions, standard of living, country’s economic development). Based on the results of estimating the conditions affecting population migration activity in Ukraine, the conclusions are drawn regarding the level of the country’s enabling migration conditions.

The Carpathian Region (Zakarpattia, Lviv, Chernivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk) is inferior to other regions in Ukraine regarding its economic development, which does not contribute to migration stability and, rather, serves as a factor motivating the active part of the population to emigrate. The problem of the labor market disproportions in the Carpathian Region is one of the significant causes of the formation and subsequent implementation of migration intentions, especially in rural areas, less economically developed areas, and district centers, where labor demand is much lower. The research aims to develop an innovative approach to calculating the intensity of the population’s external migration based on the introduction of a correction coefficient, which enables to consider the scale of transit migration in the Carpathian Region. The data presented in the study were collected for the period 2005–2018. Granger causality analysis is used to assess the relationship between migration and socio-economic development of the region. The analysis reveals that in all regions of the Carpathian Region, there is a short-run causal relationship between the intensity of external migration and the share of total household expenditure on food; in the medium run, the real household income, the size of the average monthly wages, and the volume of foreign portfolio investment, the foreign economic activity and retail trade turnover in the region; in the long run, living standards and indicators of economic growth. Future studies may require a more diverse set of indicators to evaluate the causal relationship in other regions of Ukraine, which will provide the integrity of the results of Granger causality analysis. AcknowledgmentThe research has been conducted within the framework of applied research ‘Migration Activity of the Population of the Carpathian Region’ (Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Reg. No. 0119U002010, 2019–2021).

The effective functioning of the banking sector has a key impact on the stability of economic growth. The study is aimed at monitoring the banking sector development and identifying causality between the banking sector and economic growth. The methodological tools of the research are Principal component analysis, causal relationship, and vector regression modeling. The empirical study is based on the World Bank databank by eight components (for integral analysis) and seven indicators (for causality analysis). The study presents an improved algorithm for monitoring the level of banking sector development based on calculating the integral coefficient. According to assessment, the level of banking sector development and realization of its potential in Ukraine is low and significantly inferior to the EU countries; in 2000–2019, the development of the banking sector in Ukraine was 0.061-0.153. The results obtained confirmed the large discrepancy in the development of Ukraine’s banking sector with some EU countries (the highest lag values were observed with the Czech Republic and Poland). The causality analysis revealed a strong favorable relationship between the level of development of the banking sector in Ukraine and GDP per capita (0.796), a moderate one – with foreign direct investment (0.400), and a reverse relationship with the level of national poverty (0.678). This study is of practical value for identifying two possible trajectories of a country’s development, namely, sustainable development and economic turbulence, and has allowed forming a conceptual vision of the role of the banking sector in achieving social and economic goals.