The open Russian military invasion of Ukraine supported by Belarus launched in February 2022 has changed the usual state of affairs and caused the economic, humanitarian, and migration crises. Several millions of Ukrainian people had to move to safer regions of the country, and a significant share of them (mostly women, children, and elderly people) have left abroad in search of safer living conditions, which has become the worst migration crisis since the World War II. Many Ukrainian citizens have been forced to move to Russia. Poland hosts the largest number of Ukrainian citizens among the EU countries (about 60% of all refugees), much less left for Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Germany. Almost every European country helps Ukraine in some way or another, hosting its residents and providing asylum. The aim of this article is to investigate the tendencies and changes of forced migration in Ukraine in the conditions of war. The collective protection of displaced persons allows immediate assistance to many people in conditions of emergencies and reduces pressure on the system of asylum provision authorities. This decision provides the right to Ukrainians to live, work, and receive assistance in the EU countries avoiding the lingering process of asylum application submission and long waiting for the respective decision. The article highlights the comparison of standards for providing temporary protection of displaced persons in the EU countries that have accepted most of them. Certainly, the situation with the mass movement of people or leaving abroad will have negative consequences for Ukraine. The return of forcibly displaced from Ukraine will depend on what way of legal stay abroad they choose (status of “forced” tourist, refugee, or temporary protection). Moreover, the duration of hostilities and effi ciency and complexity of actions taken by state and local authorities to implement economic and social reforms will have much effect. The article offers various development scenarios for Ukraine and ways and incentives for returning Ukrainian citizens to their Motherland.

Development of preventive migration state policy requires investigation of not only real but also prospective migration. This article provides the author’s methodological approach to the study of a population’s migration potential. The migration desires index (MDI), as one of the most important indicators of migration potential, was calculated for the unemployed urban population in Lviv, Ukraine, on the basis of the results of a monitoring sample survey (2013–2016, 2018). The MDI shows wave-like development dynamics. Generally, the share of “solid” migrants (persons who have firm plans to work abroad in the years ahead) grew from 14% in 2014 to 25% of the unemployed population in Lviv in 2018. Despite such a high level of migration desires, the respondents also showed a clear urge to be employed in Ukraine. Overall, the study results show that the improvement of employment opportunities in the national labor market and improvement of the wage system will contribute to a reduction of the level of migration potential and will thus slow the pace at which the working-age population is leaving. For those who still have a firm intention to go abroad, the state should provide an appropriate level of social and economic protection, primarily by establishing effective cooperation with countries that are most attractive for potential labor migrants. The author’s surveillance study shows that such countries are Germany, the USA, Canada, and Poland.

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Purpose. The purpose of the article is to develop the theoretical and methodological foundations for the study of return migration policy based on its information support, including regression analysis and authors’ sociological research on return intentions of Ukrainian migrants. Methodology / approach. The mathematical tools were used for the assessment of Ukraine’s economical losses, related to migration. With the help of the sociological method (survey) migrants’ intentions and main motives to return were investigated. Stepwise regression model was built for identification of main factors of Ukrainian population’s international migration. Besides, general scientific methods were used in the study, such as: analysis, generalization, systematization, tabular and graphical. Results. Analysis showed the lack of statistical and sociological information on international migration (particularly return migration) of Ukrainian population. It substantiates the need for improving the system of information provision of migration policy. The results of the survey of the migrants from the Carpathian region of Ukraine (conducted in 2020) show low level of their readiness to return. According to the answers to the questionnaire, there are two main circumstances that could motivate migrants to return: high level of wages and general improving of economic situation in Ukraine. Due to the regression model it was found that the emigration of the population is influenced by the following factors: average monthly wages, gross regional product per capita, foreign direct investment per economically active person and the share of the population with incomes below the subsistence level. The article provides main benefits and ways of implementation of the return migration policy. Particularly, circular migration is considered as a good way to slow down losses of human resources. It is beneficial for all institutional units of the migration process. Originality / scientific novelty. The methodology for the consequences of international migration study is improved. In particular, the formula for determination of migration losses through the calculation of economic activity losses is proposed and calculated for the first time. The theoretical foundation of return migration policy is developed. In particular, the model of return migration process on the individual level is elaborated. The sociological tool for the return migration investigation is developed and tested. Practical value / implications. The practical recommendations for the human resources conservation are worked out. The questions for the survey, developed by the authors, could be used in further investigations in this issue. The model of return migration process is useful for developing a comprehensive return migration policy, which could support migrants at all stages of this process: decisions making, movement and reintegration.