BackgroundInfectious disease forecasting aims to predict characteristics of both seasonal epidemics and future pandemics. Accurate and timely infectious disease forecasts could aid public health responses by informing key preparation and mitigation efforts.Main bodyFor forecasts to be fully integrated into public health decision-making, federal, state, and local officials must understand how forecasts were made, how to interpret forecasts, and how well the forecasts have performed in the past. Since the 2013–14 influenza season, the Influenza Division at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted collaborative challenges to forecast the timing, intensity, and short-term trajectory of influenza-like illness in the United States. Additional efforts to advance forecasting science have included influenza initiatives focused on state-level and hospitalization forecasts, as well as other infectious diseases. Using CDC influenza forecasting challenges as an example, this paper provides an overview of infectious disease forecasting; applications of forecasting to public health; and current work to develop best practices for forecast methodology, applications, and communication.ConclusionsThese efforts, along with other infectious disease forecasting initiatives, can foster the continued advancement of forecasting science.

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Background: Polypharmacy, the concomitant use of 5 or more medications, is highly prevalent among older adults and individuals with multimorbid conditions and has been linked to suboptimal clinical outcomes in various diseases. However, little is known about the impact of polypharmacy on clinical outcomes among coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. Objective: This systematic review summarizes the available literature on the association between polypharmacy and specific drug classes, and clinical outcomes among COVID-19 patients. Methods: We conducted an electronic database search on Embase, Medline, Cochrane, Scopus, Google Scholar, clinicaltrials.gov, LITCOVID, PubMed, PubMed Central (PMC), and China national knowledge infrastructure for studies on Polypharmacy among COVID-19 patients using relevant combinations of the keywords. Only studies published between November 2019 to September 2020 were included. Seven articles out of 1502 unique articles met the inclusion criteria and were used for the current study. We adopted the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guideline in conducting and reporting this systematic review. Results: The total sample size of all studies was 474,342, out of which 10,519 patients were COVID-19 positive, and 4818 COVID-19 positive patients experienced polypharmacy. Five out of the 7 included studies found associations between polypharmacy and negative clinical outcomes among COVID-19 patients. Polypharmacy was associated with increase in the relative risk of a positive COVID-19 test result (P < 0.01), death among male COVID-19 patients (P < 0.001), increase in the rate of acute kidney injury (P ¼ 0.003), and adverse drug reactions (P < 0.001). Antipsychotic drugs were associated with severe COVID-19 morbidity (OR ¼ 2.79; 95% CI 2.23e3.49) and increased risk of death among COVID-19 infected men (OR ¼ 1.71; 95% CI 1.18e2.48) and women (OR ¼ 1.96; 95% CI 1.41e2.73). Conclusion: Polypharmacy and selected drug classes are associated with increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes among COVID-19 patients. Understanding these relationships can enhance risk stratification and evidence-based decision-making that may improve care and clinical outcomes of COVID-19 patients.

BackgroundDespite awareness of condom efficacy, in protecting against both human immunodeficiency virus/sexually transmitted diseases (HIV/STDs) and unintended pregnancy; some females find it difficult to use or permit condom use consistently because of the power imbalances or other dynamics operating in their relationships with males. The purpose of this study was to determine the factors that predict the frequency of condom use and attitudes among sexually active female military personnel in Nigeria.MethodsThis study used a cross-sectional design in which a total of 346 responses were obtained from consenting female military personnel in two cantonments in Southwestern Nigeria between 2006 and 2008. The study instrument was designed to assess HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) knowledge (HAK), HIV risk behaviors (HRB), alcohol and drug use, condom attitudes and barriers (CAS) condom use self-efficacy (CUS) and social support to condom use (SSC). The sociodemographic characteristics of participants were also captured. Univariate analysis and multivariable logistic regression were used for modeling the predictors of condom use.ResultsThe results showed that 63% of the respondents reported using condoms always, 26% sometimes used condoms and 11% never used condoms during a sexual encounter in the past three months. Univariate analysis revealed that significant associations existed between CAB (P < 0.05), HRB (P < 0.01) and SSC (P < 0.01) with the frequency of condom use. The following sociodemographic variables: age, marital status, number of children, employment status and type of sexual relationship were also significantly (P ≤ 0.05) associated with consistent condom use in the study group. Multivariate analysis indicated that marital status, type of relationship and CAB were the only significant predictors (r2 = 0.37; P ≤ 0.05) of condom use behaviors after adjusting for all other factors in the model.ConclusionsFindings indicate that consistent condom use could be enhanced through gender-specific intervention programs that incorporate the predictor variables identified. These are likely to be successful in decreasing sexual risk behaviors in the subpopulation.

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