In June 2001, dengue transmission was detected in Havana, Cuba; 12,889 cases were reported. Dengue 3, the etiologic agent of the epidemic, caused the dengue hemorrhagic fever only in adults, with 78 cases and 3 deaths. After intensive vector control efforts, no new cases have been detected.

SummaryWe used Breteau Indices to -retrospectively -predict dengue transmission. The presence of one house block (on average about 50 houses) with a Breteau Index ‡4 in a neighbourhood (a block plus the surrounding blocks in a radius of 100 m) predicted transmission at the latter level with 81.8% sensitivity and 73.3% specificity during the first month of the Havana 2001 dengue outbreak. This result corroborates the external validity of this threshold, at least in situations with low infestations levels.

The results obtained highlight the role of the infecting serotype and also the sequence of the viral infection in the clinical outcome of a dengue infection.

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OBJECTIVE Determine point prevalence of febrile syndromes and compare with prevalence reported by habitual clinical and seroepidemiologic dengue surveillance system in Havana City. METHODSIn October 2007, a descriptive, cross-sectional study was carried out in a representative sample, calculating prevalences of febrile syndromes and undifferentiated febrile syndromes. Chi-square analysis was used for rate comparisons.RESULTS Point prevalences of febrile syndromes and undifferentiated febrile syndromes were 352.6 and 144.2 times greater, respectively, than those reported by the habitual clinical and seroepidemiologic dengue surveillance system; these differences were statistically signifi cant (p < 0.001).CONCLUSIONS Point prevalence of febrile syndromes was far greater than prevalence reported by the habitual clinical and seroepidemiologic dengue surveillance system, an indication of underreporting.