Triple deficit hypothesis defined as a status in which budget deficit, current account deficit and saving-investment gap are seen together has become important to explain the equalization problems of the countries in recent years. Also, the cases where saving-investment gaps are equalized by means of external deficit or public deficit is attempted to equalize by means of external deficit define twin deficit. While Conventional Keynesian Approach argues that budget deficit causes current account deficit, Ricardian Equivalence Approach claims that there is no correlation between budget deficit and current account deficit. In this study, the validity of the triple deficit hypothesis for the 17 transition economies between 2003-2011 by means of convenient and uninterrupted data set was analyzed via panel regression models. The data set was collected from World Bank and IMF databases. The data belonging to the variables of current account deficit, budget deficit and saving-investment gap were employed. The findings showed that the triple deficit hypothesis for the 17 transition economies is not valid in the period among 2003-2011. However, some evidence was found about the validity of Ricardian Equivalence Approach and the private sector saving-investment gap was found to be the primary riser of the current account deficit.
Corruption defined as the exploitation of the public institute for personal benefit has displayed itself in many societies in different ways throughout the history. Lack of information regarding presence and pervasiveness of corruption in central planning economies has been removed as a result of a transition to free market economies and the phenomenon of corruption has begun to be examined through diverse angles. Thus, in this study, the determinants of corruption were investigated and corruption-growth relationship was examined between 2002 and 2010. As for the parameters believed to determine corruption, openness of economy, size of the public, economic freedom, political stability, GDP per capita, urbanization growth rate, inflation, EBRD and HDI index regarding education and health were taken into consideration. Investigation of the relationship between the CPI (Corruption index) and the aforementioned variables and corruption-growth relationship were analyzed by means of panel data analysis.
Sudden fluctuations that occur as results of politicians’ manipulation on the macroeconomic variables during the election period are called as Political Business Cycle. In recent years, exchange rate also has become an important subject of many studies in this framework. Before the elections, to gain the public’s votes, politicians firstly put pressure on the exchange rates to prevent currency depreciation, and then this can lead to manipulative fluctuations. In this respect, during the 1992:01-2014:12 periods in Turkey, the impact of the entire local and general elections on the real exchange rate volatility is examined using E-GARCH method. On the other hand, political variables such as independence of Central Bank, exchange rate regime, the number of representatives of the ruling party in the parliament and coalition are included to the model while the pre and after election period from the 1st to the 6th month as dummy variables. Based on the results of the analysis, it can be said that the elections and the political variables affect the real exchange rate and its volatility in Turkey. However, there is no significant evidence whether the politicians act opportunistic behavior to be reelected. Since the uncertainty during the election period cause outflow of the capital and deferral of the investment decisions of the investors until after the election, it may well be said that the politicians fail to influence the real exchange rate for their self-interests.
In the period after transition, economically full-liberal policy implementations applied by Russia Federation has been taken attention as cyclical movement. No variations of goods are said to be effective about the main reasons about cyclical movement in liberalization. As a kind of indicator of the Russian economy, stock market’s sensitivity to oil prices analyzed. In this context, especially change of oil prices, exchange rate and money supply effects on Russia are analyzed for the period of 1996M1-2015M12. Stationarity of the series is investigated by Lee and Strazicich (2003) unit root test with multiple structural breaks, existence of cointegration relation between series is tested by Maki (2012) method of cointegration with multiple structural break, and cointegration coefficients are predicted with Dynamic Ordinary Learst Square-DOLS method. Furthermore, causality relations between series are investigated by Hacker and Hatemi-J (2012) symmetric causality test. As a result, Russian stock market is positively affected by oil prices, real effective exchange rate and real money supply. Also causality tests showed that bidirectional causality relation found on stock market with oil prices and real effective exchange rate, and unidirectional causality from real money supply to stock market.
With the increasing globalization, countries’ competitive power on international markets has gained importance. One of the most prevalent methods which is used to determine countries’ comparative advantages on which field and, thereby their international competitive power is “Explained Comparative Advantages” or “Balassa Index” developed by Balassa (1965). If index value that is attained by calculating index is higher than 50, country’s competitive power on that good is high; if the index value is less than 50, competitive power on that good is low. In this study, 4 countries are selected according to their accessibility of the data, for these countries, variance on the competitive power is examined in terms of defense industry with Balassa Index. In the study, counter arguments with globalization logic, that is, especially in defense industry reduction of external dependence when considered even Adam Smith gave approval anti liberal implementations about this subject, in the countries which are exposed to domestic and foreign oppression, searching for detractive precaution on external dependence is more likely high. In the analysis to test this hypothesis, while competition pursuit on defense industry is triggering self-reliance in stressful economies, it is high in economies that have weak military alliance.
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