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This study examined the effects of competitiveness on the economic growth of transition countries between the years 1995 and 2009. Panel ARDL (Autoregressive distributed lag) models were applied for 23 countries. The competitiveness of industrial sectors and sub-sectors were calculated by Balassa index, and the effects of the indexes on transition economies (TEs) were checked via the control variables of: capital formation per capita, and globalization index in the Cobb-Douglas production function framework. The findings indicate that some sectors affect TEs positively whereas others affect them negatively.

ÖZBu çalışmada Türkiye dış ticaretini etkileyen faktörler ve özellikle döviz kurunun dış ticaret üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Bu amaca yönelik zaman serisi analizleri kullanılmış ve çalışmada kullanılan seriler 1980 ve 2010 yıllarını kapsamaktadır. Reel döviz kurları, GSYİH, dış gelir ve politik haklar açıklayıcı değişken olarak kullanılmıştır. Bağımlı değişken olarak da ihracat ve ithalat değerleri alınmıştır. Çalışma-da kullanılan tüm serilerin birinci dereceden farkları alınarak durağanlaştığı gözlenmiştir. Kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkilerin tespiti için eş bütünleşme ve hata düzeltme modelleri kullanılmıştır. Reel döviz kuru hariç diğer değişkenleri için istatistikî bakımdan anlamlı ve teorik olarak beklenilen yönde katsayılar elde edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak Türkiye dış ticareti üzerinde döviz kurlarının önemli bir etkiye sahip olmadığı ve Türk dış ticaret yapısının giderek ihraç etmek amacıyla ithal eden (re-exporter) yapıya büründüğü göz-lenmiştir.Anahtar Kelimeler: Dış Ticaret, Döviz Kuru, Zaman Serisi Analizi JEL Sınıflandırması: C32, F10, F31 SENSITIVY TO EXCHANGE RATES VOLATILITY OF FOREIGN TRADE: AN EMPRICAL INVESTIGATION ON TURKEY ABSTRACTIn this study, it is aimed to check the factors that affecting Turkish foreign trade and specifically the effects of real exchange rate volatility were examined. For this purpose, time series analysis were run and data covers the years between 1980 and 2010. The variables of real exchange rate, GDP, foreign income and political rights were taken as explanatory variables of the study. Export and import were taken as dependent variable. All series used in the models are stationary in the first difference and co-integration tests and error correction models were used to check long run and short run relationships between variables. It was reached statistically significant and theoretically expected coefficients except from real exchange rates. As a consequence, it was observed that there is no significant effect of exchange rate volatility on Turkish foreign trade and Turkish trade structure are becoming re-exporter.

The effects of the military expenditure on the economic growth and consequently on the employment has been the primary topic of the discussing in the literature of economics. Considering that the military expenditures generally emerge as a sub-item of the public spending, it has been asserted by the liberal approach that the principle of the non-productiveness of the public sector would be even more applicable in the military expenditures. None the less, using the military spending as a tool to lead an economy that feature underemployment constitutes the positive aspect of the views to the military expenditure and this is also the case of the prediction of the Keynesian economy. In this study, the effects of the military expenditure on the unemployment, which is a reflection of the effects of the economic growth, are analyzed as the subject matter. The findings revealed that the military spending has positive effects on the unemployment in some G20 states while it also has negative effects in some and has neutral effects in others. In addition, it is further indicated that the positive effects are experienced in relatively advanced economies, the negative effects emerge in relatively less developed economies, and the countries with abundant natural resources experience neutral effects.

Together with the destruction of Berlin Wall in 1989 and fall of The Soviets 1991, one of the basic problems of transition economies is the matter of high inflation. The underlying factor of the high and/or hyperinflation process is the rupture of input relations and its negative supply shocks. Emergence of inflationary structure brought irregularity in macroeconomic indicators, too. Many structural adjustments were created in order to lighten the effects of transition process; and improvements were tried to be done in economic indicators such as inflation interest, budget balance and foreign debt which is the reflection of current deficit. In efforts for improving basic economic indicators Maastricht criteria were accepted as the basic criteria due to the fact that they are compulsory for membership process for some transition economies and others optionally accepted them as they are examples. Therefore, in this study based on Maastricht criteria, the convergence of transition economies to these criteria were accepted as success indicator and concordantly it was studied in which proportion the policy implementations are/aren’t successful or whether they correspond to theoretical expectations. In this study it was aimed to test the matter of fact which is accepted as criteria convergence in literature and with panel data analysis it was tried to reveal whether convergence come true in terms of criteria. Hence, the difference between the countries that provided discipline and those do not provided it is found and its effects to development performance is clearly determined.