This study examined the effects of competitiveness on the economic growth of transition countries between the years 1995 and 2009. Panel ARDL (Autoregressive distributed lag) models were applied for 23 countries. The competitiveness of industrial sectors and sub-sectors were calculated by Balassa index, and the effects of the indexes on transition economies (TEs) were checked via the control variables of: capital formation per capita, and globalization index in the Cobb-Douglas production function framework. The findings indicate that some sectors affect TEs positively whereas others affect them negatively.

ÖZBu çalışmada Türkiye dış ticaretini etkileyen faktörler ve özellikle döviz kurunun dış ticaret üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Bu amaca yönelik zaman serisi analizleri kullanılmış ve çalışmada kullanılan seriler 1980 ve 2010 yıllarını kapsamaktadır. Reel döviz kurları, GSYİH, dış gelir ve politik haklar açıklayıcı değişken olarak kullanılmıştır. Bağımlı değişken olarak da ihracat ve ithalat değerleri alınmıştır. Çalışma-da kullanılan tüm serilerin birinci dereceden farkları alınarak durağanlaştığı gözlenmiştir. Kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkilerin tespiti için eş bütünleşme ve hata düzeltme modelleri kullanılmıştır. Reel döviz kuru hariç diğer değişkenleri için istatistikî bakımdan anlamlı ve teorik olarak beklenilen yönde katsayılar elde edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak Türkiye dış ticareti üzerinde döviz kurlarının önemli bir etkiye sahip olmadığı ve Türk dış ticaret yapısının giderek ihraç etmek amacıyla ithal eden (re-exporter) yapıya büründüğü göz-lenmiştir.Anahtar Kelimeler: Dış Ticaret, Döviz Kuru, Zaman Serisi Analizi JEL Sınıflandırması: C32, F10, F31 SENSITIVY TO EXCHANGE RATES VOLATILITY OF FOREIGN TRADE: AN EMPRICAL INVESTIGATION ON TURKEY ABSTRACTIn this study, it is aimed to check the factors that affecting Turkish foreign trade and specifically the effects of real exchange rate volatility were examined. For this purpose, time series analysis were run and data covers the years between 1980 and 2010. The variables of real exchange rate, GDP, foreign income and political rights were taken as explanatory variables of the study. Export and import were taken as dependent variable. All series used in the models are stationary in the first difference and co-integration tests and error correction models were used to check long run and short run relationships between variables. It was reached statistically significant and theoretically expected coefficients except from real exchange rates. As a consequence, it was observed that there is no significant effect of exchange rate volatility on Turkish foreign trade and Turkish trade structure are becoming re-exporter.

Çalışmada Türkiye Ekonomisinde meydana gelen dalgalanmalar kişi başına GSYİH değişkeni üzerinden Hodrick-Prescott ve Markov rejim değişimi modelleriyle analiz edilmiştir. Makalede kullanılan veriler çeyrek dönemlik veriler cinsinden olup 1987-2011 yılları arası dönemi kapsamaktadır. Sonuç olarak Türkiye Ekonomisinin iki farklı rejimde hareket ettiği gözlemlenmiştir. Ekonomide meydana gelen dalgalanmaların dönüm noktaları belirtilmiş ve dalgalanma fazlarının süreleri hesaplanmıştır.

It is propounded that there are two motivations behind foreign direct investments (FDI). One of them is to invest in foreign countries because of trade barrier to export. In this case foreign investors operate in import substitution industries (ISI). The second fact to invest in another country away from homeland is to get benefit from cost advantages such as cheap labor and inputs, positioning closed to developed countries. With this aspect foreign investors operate in export oriented sectors (EOS). The economic consequences were discussed lighting on study’s aim examining the FDI to Transitions Countries whether are ISI or EOS. The foreign direct investments to Transitions Countries were investigated by panel data analysis. First and second generation unit root tests and cross section dependency tests were applied. Long and short term regressions were realized. The data set were obtained from Word Bank Data Base and annually data were collected between 1993 and 2012. Theoretically and statistically expected coefficients and coefficient’s sign for explanatory variables have been obtained. It is as a result observed that the countries have higher internal market potential to take foreign direct investments to import substitution industries. The countries close to developed economies have been drawing foreign direct investments to export oriented sectors.