d. Open access institutional repositoriesThe AMS understands there is increasing demand for institutions to provide open access to the published research being produced by employees, such as faculty, of that institution. In recognition of this, the AMS grants permission to each of its authors to deposit the definitive version of that author's published AMS journal article in the repository of the author's institution provided all of the following conditions are met: The article lists the institution hosting the repository as the author's affiliation.  The copy provided to the repository is the final published PDF of the article (not the EOR version made available by AMS prior to formal publication; see section 6).  The repository does not provide access to the article until six months after the date of publication of the definitive version by the AMS.  The repository copy includes the AMS copyright notice. T he Deep Propagating Gravity Wave Experiment (DEEPWAVE) was the first comprehensive measurement program devoted to quantifying the evolution of gravity waves (GWs) arising from sources at lower altitudes as they propagate, interact with mean and other wave motions, and ultimately dissipate from Earth's surface into the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). Research goals motivating the DEEPWAVE measurement program are summarized in Table 1. To achieve our research goals, DEEPWAVE needed to sample regions having large horizontal extents because of large horizontal GW propagation distances for some GW sources. DEEPWAVE accomplished this goal through airborne and ground-based (GB) measurements that together provided sensitivity to multiple GW sources and their propagation to, and effects at, higher altitudes. DEEPWAVE was performed over and around the GW "hotspot" region of New Zealand (Fig.1, top) during austral winter, when strong vortex edge westerlies provide a stable environment for deep GW propagation into the MLT.DEEPWAVE airborne measurements employed two research aircraft during a core 6-week airborne field program based at Christchurch, New Zealand, from 6 June to 21 July 2014. The National Science 425MARCH 2016 AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | Foundation (NSF)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Gulfstream V (GV) provided in situ, dropsonde, and microwave temperature profiler (MTP) measurements extending from Earth's surface to ~20 km throughout the core field program (see Table 2). The GV also carried three new instruments designed specifically to address DEEPWAVE science goals: 1) a Rayleigh lidar measuring densities and temperatures from ~20 to 60 km, 2) a sodium resonance lidar measuring sodium densities and temperatures from ~75 to 100 km, and 3) an advanced mesosphere temperature mapper (AMTM) measuring temperatures in a horizontal plane at ~87 km with a field of view (FOV) of ~120 km along track and 80 km cross track. AMTM measurements were augmented by two side-viewing infrared (IR) airglow "wing" cameras also viewing an ~87-km altitude that extended the cross-track FOV to ...

During austral winter, and away from orographic maxima or ''hot spots,'' stratospheric gravity waves in both satellite observations and Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data reveal enhanced amplitudes in a broad midlatitude belt extending across the Southern Ocean from east of the Andes to south of New Zealand. The peak latitude of this feature slowly migrates poleward from 508 to 608S. Wave amplitudes are much weaker across the midlatitude Pacific Ocean. These features of the wave field are in striking agreement with diagnostics of baroclinic growth rates in the troposphere associated with midlatitude winter storm tracks and the climatology of the midlatitude jet. This correlation suggests that these features of the stratospheric gravity wave field are controlled by geographical variations of tropospheric nonorographic gravity wave sources in winter storm tracks: spontaneous adjustment emission from the midlatitude winter jet, frontogenesis, and convection.

A parameter widely used to predict topographic flow blocking is the nondimensional mountain height or, synonymously, the inverse Froude number. Predictions using this parameter are based on the morphology of flows with uniform upstream static stability and wind speed, which rarely occur in the real world. The appropriateness of applying this theory in the presence of nontrivial background stability is therefore investigated using a numerical model. Two methods were considered to estimate the low-level stability, averaging the Brunt-Väisälä frequency below the crest and using the bulk change in between the ground and crest level.No single best method emerged for estimating the upstream static stability and thereby mapping the simulations with inversions onto the set of solutions with constant stratification. Instead, the best method depended on the application at hand. To predict the onset of flow stagnation, averaging the low-level stability worked best, while to predict low-level flow diversion the bulk estimate of low-level stability was most appropriate. These results are consistent across a range of inversion thicknesses and strengths. In addition, it is shown that variations in static stability above the mountain crest have little impact on flow blocking.

The sensitivity and predictability of a rapidly developing extratropical cyclone, Xynthia, that had a severe impact on Europe is explored using a high-resolution moist adjoint modeling system. The adjoint diagnostics indicate that the intensity of severe winds associated with the front just prior to landfall was particularly sensitive to perturbations in the moisture and temperature fields and to a lesser degree the wind fields. The sensitivity maxima are found in the low-and midlevels, oriented in a sloped region along the warm front, and maximized within the warm conveyor belt. The moisture sensitivity indicates that only a relatively small filament of moisture within an atmospheric river present at the initial time was critically important for the development of Xynthia. Adjoint-based optimal perturbations introduced into the tangent linear and nonlinear models exhibit rapid growth over 36 h, while initial perturbations of the opposite sign show substantial weakening of the low-level jet and a marked reduction in the spatial extent of the strong low-level winds. The sensitivity fields exhibit an upshear tilt along the sloping warm conveyor belt and front, and the perturbations extract energy from the mean flow as they are untilted by the shear, consistent with the PV unshielding mechanism. The results of this study underscore the need for accurate moisture observations and data assimilation systems that can adequately assimilate these observations in order to reduce the forecast uncertainties for these severe extratropical cyclones. However, given the nature of the sensitivities and the potential for rapid perturbation and error growth, the intrinsic predictability of severe cyclones such as Xynthia is likely limited.

The sensitivity of downslope wind forecasts to small changes in initial conditions is explored by using 70-member ensemble simulations of two prototypical windstorms observed during the Terrain-Induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX). The 10 weakest and 10 strongest ensemble members are composited and compared for each event.In the first case, the 6-h ensemble-mean forecast shows a large-amplitude breaking mountain wave and severe downslope winds. Nevertheless, the forecasts are very sensitive to the initial conditions because the difference in the downslope wind speeds predicted by the strong-and weak-member composites grows to larger than 28 m s 21 over the 6-h forecast. The structure of the synoptic-scale flow one hour prior to the windstorm and during the windstorm is very similar in both the weak-and strong-member composites.Wave breaking is not a significant factor in the second case, in which the strong winds are generated by a layer of high static stability flowing beneath a layer of weaker mid-and upper-tropospheric stability. In this case, the sensitivity to initial conditions is weaker but still significant. The difference in downslope wind speeds between the weak-and strong-member composites grows to 22 m s 21 over 12 h. During and one hour before the windstorm, the synoptic-scale flow exhibits appreciable differences between the strong-and weakmember composites. Although this case appears to be more predictable than the wave-breaking event, neither case suggests that much confidence should be placed in the intensity of downslope winds forecast 12 or more hours in advance.