Cladosporium conidia have been shown to be important aeroallergens in many regions throughout the world, but annual spore concentrations vary considerably between years. Understanding these annual fluctuations may be of value in the clinical management of allergies. This study investigates the number of days in summer when spore concentration exceeds the allergenic threshold in relation to regional temperature and precipitation at two sites in England and Wales over 27 years. Results indicate that number of days in summer when the Cladosporium spores are above the allergenic concentration is positively correlated with regional temperature and negatively correlated with precipitation for both sites over the study period. Further analysis used a winter North Atlantic Oscillation index to explore the potential for long-range forecasting of the aeroallergen. For both spore measurement sites, a positive correlation exists between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index and the number of days in summer above the allergenic threshold for Cladosporium spore concentration.

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SUMMARYPrevious work has shown that the national average quality of the UK wheat crop from 1974 to 1999 was associated with the preceding winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The association of the winter NAO with the grain quality measure, specific weight, was shown to be mediated by sunshine duration during grain filling and unconditional wet day probability during grain ripening (the probability of a wet day following either a dry or a wet day). The present study tests the hypothesis that the association between specific weight and the winter NAO can be detected in data from 158 years of the Broadbalk Wheat Experiment at Rothamsted in south-east England. Specific weight from the Broadbalk Experiment responded to sunshine duration during grain filling and unconditional wet day probability during grain ripening in a similar way to the national average data. An association with the winter NAO was found in the Broadbalk data from 1956 to 2001, but not in the previous 112 years (1844–1955). This finding is consistent with other work showing significant correlations between the winter NAO and summer climate only in recent decades. It is concluded that the association between wheat quality and the NAO is a recent phenomenon.

Many studies have demonstrated the effects of climate on cereal yield, but there has been little work carried out examining the relationships between climate and cereal grain quality on a national scale. In this study national mean hectolitre weight for both rye and winter wheat in Finland was modelled using monthly gridded accumulated snow depth, precipitation rate, solar radiation and temperature over the period 1971 to 2001. Variables with significant relationships in correlation analysis both before and after difference detrending were further investigated using forward stepwise regression. For rye, March snow depth, and June and July solar radiation accounted for 66% of the year-to-year variance in hectolitre weight, and for winter wheat January snow depth, June solar radiation and August temperature accounted for 62% of the interannual variance in hectolitre weight. Further analysis of national variety trials and weather station data was used to support proposed biological mechanisms. Finally a cross validation technique was used to test forecast models with those variables available by early July by making predictions of above or below the mean hectolitre weight. Analysis of the contingency tables for these predictions indicated that national hectolitre weight forecasts are feasible for both cereals in advance of harvest.