Relationships between climate and winter cereal grain quality in Finland and their potential for forecasting

Abstract

Many studies have demonstrated the effects of climate on cereal yield, but there has been little work carried out examining the relationships between climate and cereal grain quality on a national scale. In this study national mean hectolitre weight for both rye and winter wheat in Finland was modelled using monthly gridded accumulated snow depth, precipitation rate, solar radiation and temperature over the period 1971 to 2001. Variables with significant relationships in correlation analysis both before and after difference detrending were further investigated using forward stepwise regression. For rye, March snow depth, and June and July solar radiation accounted for 66% of the year-to-year variance in hectolitre weight, and for winter wheat January snow depth, June solar radiation and August temperature accounted for 62% of the interannual variance in hectolitre weight. Further analysis of national variety trials and weather station data was used to support proposed biological mechanisms. Finally a cross validation technique was used to test forecast models with those variables available by early July by making predictions of above or below the mean hectolitre weight. Analysis of the contingency tables for these predictions indicated that national hectolitre weight forecasts are feasible for both cereals in advance of harvest.

Can Agrometeorological Indices of Adverse Weather Conditions Help to Improve Yield Prediction by Crop Models?

“…A previous study [57] has found, for basically the same data set, that high yields were related to high February temperatures and were less significantly related to January temperatures, indicating that the relationship of temperature to yield depends on the way in which the effects of temperature on the crop are expressed. The apparent absence of a correlation between yield and number of days with drought in Sweden is in agreement with other studies, which have seldom found clear relationships between the precipitation in specific months from March through June and winter wheat yield in Sweden [58], Denmark [59], and Finland [60]. This lack of clear relationships may be due to prevailing frequent irregular precipitation and the ability of the soils to buffer short-term water shortage.…”

A comparison of the functional characteristics of wheat stored as grain with wheat stored in spike form

“…Hectolitre weight is a grain quality indicator and is the weight of a fixed volume of grain (kg hL )1 ). It is used as an approximate measure of the expected flour yield (Hollins et al, 2004). Generally greater the hectolitre weight, better the quality and yield of flour (Kunert et al, 2007).…”

“…Hectolitre weight is a grain quality indicator and is the weight of a fixed volume of grain (kg hL −1 ). It is used as an approximate measure of the expected flour yield (Hollins et al. , 2004).…”

Combining Written and Tree-Ring Evidence to Trace Past Food Crises: A Case Study from Finland

“…Finland is often considered to be the most northern agricultural country in the world (e.g. Mukula and Rantanen 1987;Häkkilä 2002;Hollins et al 2004), where hunger, frost and crop failures constitute recurring themes in the narratives of its agricultural history (e.g. Jutikkala 2003;Solantie 2006;Lappalainen 2012).…”