This paper uses simple mathematical models and statistical estimation techniques to analyse the frequency distribution of microfilariae (mf) in blood samples from human populations which are endemic for lymphatic filariasis. The theoretical analysis examines the relationship between microfilarial burdens and the prevalence of adult (macrofilarial) worms in the human host population. The main finding is that a large proportion of observed mf-negatives may be 'true' zeros, arising from the absence of macrofilarial infections or unmated adult worms, rather than being attributable to the blood sampling process. The corresponding mf distribution should then follow a Poisson mixture, arising from the sampling of mf positives, with an additional proportion of 'true' mf-zeros. This hypothesis is supported by analysis of observed Wuchereria bancrofti mf distributions from Southern India, Japan and Fiji, in which zero-truncated Poisson mixtures fit mf-positive counts more effectively than distributions including the observed zeros. The fits of two Poisson mixtures, the negative binomial and the Sichel distribution, are compared. The Sichel provides a slightly better empirical description of the mf density distribution; reasons for this improvement, and a discussion of the relative merits of the two distributions, are presented. The impact on observed mf distributions of increasing blood sampling volume and extraction efficiency are illustrated via a simple model, and directions for future work are identified.

This study uses a reversible catalytic model to estimate the age-specific rates of gain and loss of Wuchereria bancrofti infection from data collected during a control programme in Pondicherry, South India. The data describe the infection status in 1981 and 1986 of two cohorts of individuals, one living in an area where vector reduction had been achieved, and the other in a comparable endemic area. The rate of loss of infection in the absence of reinfection is estimated for the cohort in the control area, and the rate of gain of infection by the cohort in the endemic area estimated by substitution in the model. The mean expected life span of patent infection is estimated to be 5.4 years. The instantaneous rate of loss of infection is independent of age, while the rate of gain of infection exhibits a convex age-profile, peaking in the 16-20 year age-class. The reduced rate of gain in adults is largely attributable to the increasing proportion of potentially resistant individuals with clinical disease. The results suggest that the age-distribution of bancroftian filariasis is primarily determined by age-dependency in the rate of acquisition of infection.

SUMMARYA 5-year Integrated Vector Management (IVM) project was implemented in Pondicherry, South India, for the control of Bancroftian filariasis. The efficacy of the IVM strategy was compared with routine control strategy under the national programme. The present paper describes the pre-control epidemiological features of filariasis as determined by a mass blood survey in 1981. Of 24946 persons examined 8-41 % were microfilaraemic. Microfilaraemia prevalence was homogeneous throughout the study area. The prevalence and intensity of microfilaraemia were age dependent, and increased monotonically until about 20 years, following which there was a decline until about 40 years to become relatively stable in older age classes. The gender profiles of both prevalence and intensity of microfilaraemia showed no difference between the sexes until about 15 years of age, following which both were higher in males compared to females. The distribution of microfilarial counts was overdispersed, indicating aggregation of adult worms.

In the Kyasanur Forest disease area two species of wild monkeys, Presbytis entellus and Macaca radiata, succumb to the natural infection with Kyasanur Forest disease (KFD) virus (family Flaviviridae). Between October 1964 and September 1973, 1046 monkeys (860 P. entellus and 186 M. radiata) died. Of these, KFD virus was isolated from 118 P. entellus and 13 M. radiata. Maximum mortality of monkeys was reported during December through May coinciding with the season of activity of immature stages of Haemaphysalis ticks, incriminated vectors of KFD. The epizootic showed an initial spread of the disease to the areas contiguous with the original focus of infection. This was followed by the recognition of epizootics and epidemics in three new foci, removed from the original focus, by the end of 1973. It was also observed that, in certain localities in the original focus, KFD virus activity persisted over several years.