[1] We investigated whether one or a few coupling functions can represent best the interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere over a wide variety of magnetospheric activity. Ten variables which characterize the state of the magnetosphere were studied. Five indices from ground-based magnetometers were selected, namely Dst, Kp, AE, AU, and AL, and five from other sources, namely auroral power (Polar UVI), cusp latitude (sin(L c )), b2i (both DMSP), geosynchronous magnetic inclination angle (GOES), and polar cap size (SuperDARN). These indices were correlated with more than 20 candidate solar wind coupling functions. One function, representing the rate magnetic flux is opened at the magnetopause, correlated best with 9 out of 10 indices of magnetospheric activity. This is dF MP /dt = v 4/3 B T 2/3 sin 8/3 (q c /2), calculated from (rate IMF field lines approach the magnetopause, $v)(% of IMF lines which merge, sin 8/3 (q c /2))(interplanetary field magnitude, B T )(merging line length,). The merging line length is based on flux matching between the solar wind and a dipole field and agrees with a superposed IMF on a vacuum dipole. The IMF clock angle dependence matches the merging rate reported (albeit with limited statistics) at high altitude. The nonlinearities of the magnetospheric response to B T and v are evident when the mean values of indices are plotted, in scatterplots, and in the superior correlations from dF MP /dt. Our results show that a wide variety of magnetospheric phenomena can be predicted with reasonable accuracy (r > 0.80 in several cases) ab initio, that is without the time history of the target index, by a single function, estimating the dayside merging rate. Across all state variables studied (including AL, which is hard to predict, and polar cap size, which is hard to measure), dF MP /dt accounts for about 57.2% of the variance, compared to 50.9% for E KL and 48.8% for vBs. All data sets included at least thousands of points over many years, up to two solar cycles, with just two parameter fits, and the correlations are thus robust. The sole index which does not correlate best with dF MP /dt is Dst, which correlates best (r = 0.87) with p 1/2 dF MP /dt. If dF MP /dt were credited with this success, its average score would be even higher.Citation: Newell, P. T., T. Sotirelis, K. Liou, C.-I. Meng, and F. J. Rich (2007), A nearly universal solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function inferred from 10 magnetospheric state variables,

Mechanics and Materials Technology Center: Evaluation and characterization of new materials: metals, alloys, ceramics, polymers and their composites, and new forms of c;u-bon; development and analysis of thin films and depositi m techniques; nondestructive evaluation, component failure analysis and reliability; fracture mechanics and stress corrosion; development and evaluation ':,f hardened components; analysis and evaluation of materials at cryogenic and elevated temperatures; launch vehicle and reentry fluid mechanics, heat trans fer and flight dynamics; chemical and electric propulsion; spacecraft structural mechanics, spacecraft survivability and vulnerability assessment, contamination, thermal and structural control; high temperature thermomechanics, gas kinetics and radiation; lubrication and surface phenomena.Space and Envirunment Technology Center: Magnetospheric, auroral and cosmic ray physics, wave -particle interactions, magnetospheric plasma waves; atmospheric and ionospheric physics, density and composition of the upper atmosphere, remote sensing using atmospheric radiation; solar physics, infrared astronomy, ;nfrared signature analysis; effects of solar activity, magnetic storms and nuclear expiusions on the earth 's atmosphere, ionosphere and magnetosphere; effects of electromagnetic and particulate radiations on space systems; space instrumentation; propellant chef. istry, chemical dynamics, environmental Lhemistry, trace detection; atmospheric chemical reactions, atmospheric optics, light scattering, state-specific cherr ical reactions and radiative signatures of missile plumes, and sensor out-offield-of-view rejection.. . ,^.,..2:Yw ^n .

Abstract. We use Polar ultraviolet imager (UVI) and

Multi-instrument data sets from the ground and satellites at both low and high altitude have provided new results concerning substorm onset and its source region in the magnetosphere. Twenty-six out of 37 substorm onset events showed evidence of azimuthally spaced auroral forms (AAFs) prior to the explosive poleward motion associated with optical substorm onset. The azimuthal wavelengths associated with these onsets were found to range between 132 and 583 km with a mean value of 307 _+ 115 km. The occurrence rate increased with decreasing wavelength down to a cutoff wavelength near 130 km. AAFs can span 8 hours of local time prior to onset and generally propagate eastward in the morning sector. Onset itself is, however, more localized spanning only about 1 hour local time. The average location of the peak intensity lbr 80 onsets was 65.9 + 3.5 CGMIat, 22.9 _+ 1.2 Mlt, whereas the average location of the AAF onsets was at 63.8 _+ 3.3 CGMIat, 22.9 _+ 1.1 Mlt. AAF onsets occur during time periods when the solar wind pressure is relatively high. These low-latitude wavelike onsets appear as precursors in the form of long-period magnetic pulsations (Pc 5 band) and frequently occur on the equatorward portion of the double oval distribution. AAFs brighten in conjunction with substom onset leading to the conclusion that they are a growth phase activity causally related to substorm onset. Precursor activity associated with these AAFs is also seen near geosynchronous orbit altitude and examples show the relationship between the various instrumental definitions of substorm onset. The implied mode number (30 to 135) derived from this work is inconsistent with cavity mode resonances but is consistent with a modified flute/ballooning instability which requires azimuthal pressure gradients. It is suggested that this instability exists in growth phase but that an additional factor exists in the premidnight sector which results in an explosive onset. The extended source region 'and the distance to the open-closed field line region constrain reconnection theory and local mechanisms for substom onset. It is demonstrated that multiple onset substorms can exist for which localized dipolarizations and the Pi 2 occur simultaneously with tail stretching existing elsewhere. Further, the tail can be less stretched at geosynchronous orbit during the optical auroral onset than during the precursor pseudobreakups. These pseudobreakups can be initiated by auroral streamers which originate at the most poleward set of arc systems and drift to the more equatorward main UV oval. Observations are presented of these AAFs in conjunction with low-and high-altitude particle and magnetic field data. These place the activations at the interface between dipolar and taillike field lines probably near the peak in the cross-tail current. These onsets are put in the context of a new scenario for substorm morphology which employs individual modules which operate independently or couple together. This allows particular substorm events to be more accurately desc...

Abstract. Impulsive Pi2 pulsations have long been recognized as one of the key signatures of magnetic activity during substorm periods due to their wide observable range both in latitudes and longitudes. It is well documented that there is usually more than one Pi2 wave burst associated with a substorm and only one of them corresponds to the onset of the substorm. This observational fact poses obstacles to determining substorm onsets with Pi2 signals. Although the Pi2 have become one of the most popular indicators for substorm onsets, the reliability of using the Pi2 in this fashion has not been seriously investigated. In this paper we address this question with a statistical approach by using ,- This result suggests that Pi2 may not be as a good indicator of the substorm onset as it was thought to be. Interestingly, it is always possible to associate Pi2 pulsations with some forms of auroral intensification. When compared to auroral breakups, Pi2 onsets are subject to a small delay of I -3 min, with a peak around 1 min. Delays of Pi2 onsets are revealed to be a function of location relative to auroral breakup. This dependence is found to be consistent with the time of flight for a fast-mode wave, in a plasmapause cavity mode model, propagating in the magnetosphere.•